Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Luce Wildebeest who wrote (41634)	11/15/2001 4:52:23 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Calvin Taliban were a myth, their invincibility was a myth, most of the analysts never really thought that their coming and now going would be like a whimper. No guerilla war can be pursued with success unless it is fully supported by the common people. The Taliban are treated as aliens in the whole non-Pushtun belt in Northern Afghanistan and in Herat in the West. They had to leave several cities in a huff because they expected no support from the local people. The rejoicing in the streets of Kabul at the arrival of their opponents would indicate what kind of treatment they should expect if they ever tried to sneak back into the area as guerillas. They just folded. I had no doubts about this falling of house of cards, we were very fair and now also I don't think that any comparisons on guerrilla wars are true or realistic. On Tuesday the Taliban forces fled Kabul in the darkness of night without firing a single shot, thus abandoning the people of capital to their fate. They had earlier withdrawn from a number of cities including Mazar-i-Sharif, Bamian and Herat without giving battle. All these towns had been won by them after enormous bloodshed. Their withdrawal from 80 percent of the country is being described as a tactical retreat and the Taliban supporters expect them to win back the lost areas through guerrilla war. This is a new myth, which is bound to explode like several others floated earlier. Without external support no amount of freedom fight can succeed, mountain do grow wheat, the surrounding areas are now hostile to Taliban and water is really scarce, they would also need continuous supply of weapons and communication. All this is seriously missing.

To: Luce Wildebeest who wrote (41634)	11/15/2001 4:53:59 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

It is not strategic it is that debacle no one ever expected, we all did here..ggg For Guerrilla war you need massive backing from adjoining nations, from China long walk to Mao's struggle or Che Guera's struggle or Hochiminh trail you cannot have wars in vacant strategic and geographic expanses.. The retreating Taliban forces are heading towards the Pushtun districts in the south and east of Afghanistan. Will they be able to hold cities like Kandahar and Jalalabad against the new government in Kabul for long? This brings us to another vital issue. Guerilla wars require not only local support but also international help. The People's Liberation Army received invaluable military support from the USSR, and the Vietnam Workers Party from both China and the Soviet Union. The jihadi organizations who fought Russian troops would have been wiped out in months if they had not received uninterrupted supply of arms, ammunition and spares from the US and a number of other countries or were not provided sanctuary by Pakistan. To claim that their zeal was the principal factor in defeating a superpower is an empty boast. No government in the region has any sympathy whatsoever for the Taliban, thanks to the short-sighted policies pursued by them. All countries in the neighbourhood have consequently contributed to their downfall. In case it decided to fight a guerilla war, the religious militia will have no source of arms supply in the world. As they exhaust the arms and ammunition presently in their possession, they will be hard put to replace these. In the meanwhile Pushtun warlords will in all likelihood be coopted in the new setup in Kabul. The Taliban will then be fighting not against the Americans but local Pushtuns, as knowledgeable about the people and the lie of the land as the Taliban. The rise of the clerics as national leaders was an anomaly in Afghanistan where a mullah is traditionally considered to be fit only to lead the prayers or conduct marriage and death ceremonies while the tribal chiefs decide the temporal issues. After their departure from the centre stage, the country may revert to warlordism but there is little chance of the Taliban ever regaining power.