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To: trustmanic who wrote (1938)11/15/2001 1:25:48 AM
From: bill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11633
 
The reason we don't know is because there are so many
external variables that are unpredictable. I'd be wary
about being too optomistic about Afganistan. Not that
they won't get Bin Ladin. But as Laurence of Arabia
discovered. The moment the enemy is defeated the tribal
wars begin again. Which, of course, may be fine as long
as it means no ability to carry violence outside Afganistan.

One can hope for a best case scenario. Bin Ladin and
cohorts are found, killed or captured. The Afganis
form a stable govt. that doesn't export violence. The
lesson is learned by places like Iraq and the financiers
in Saudi Arabia. And then we can go back to something
much more predictable like economic cycles in economies
we understand.

I've got my fingers crossed but...

Oil at ten dollars is not rational but I don't think we're
dealing with a rational situation at the moment. I hope
George is right. 14.00 bottom. Personally, I hope the
bottom is 19.00 and that is brief.