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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (1589)	11/15/2001 1:56:05 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

Maybe we'll have a big correction but I'm staying stuck in long mode here. Lately this has taken on more of a feeling of Nov 1998 type bottom with extraneous situation(the very big one of 9/11) pushing the Fed to pump in far more money into the system than they would have if we it was just a run of the mill borderline recession as it appeared pre 9/11. This allowed people to go crazy buying cars at 0% interest and refinance mortgages adding more household liquidity to go along with lower energy prices, lower taxes and additional stimulus package on the way one of these days. No matter what bill comes out there will be some incentive for additional capital spending by business. Is this all a bear market rally? I decided a while ago not to try to play that game but to stay long including my NASDAQ 100 proxies until it looks like we're nearing the top of a cyclical bull. That 6/21/01 NASDAQ low of 1423 really looks like a bottom to me and we've also now passed into the favorable 11/1-May 1 season. It just smells to me like whether we're in a cyclical bull(since 9/21 S&P500 up 18% and NASDAQ up 33.7%) or need to head back before moving up again it looks like conditions are ripe for a bull. Further the monetary flood and other conducive factors likely to reverse some time next year or so and Fed tightening and dull profit recovery compared to last 5 years certainly can set up situation consistent with secular bear once cyclical bull peaks below pre bear market levels. Then I guess you just have to figure out how to make money for a bunch of years with modest fixed income and modest equity returns. Marc