Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (1590)	11/15/2001 2:26:21 AM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 10065

OT: This London Times story on Osama's possible nuclear weapons is being given a lot of credibility now based on the details. I wouldn't be surprised if special forces attacking areas to destroy any capability. It sounds like we hopefully moved just in time. Heard story tonight that we bombed a house killing a bunch of al-Qaeda leaders. Maybe there'll be more details tomorrow. thetimes.co.uk THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15 2001 Bin Laden's nuclear secrets found FROM ANTHONY LOYD IN KABUL * Times reporter finds blueprint for 'Nagasaki bomb' * Singed files left by fleeing terrorists OSAMA BIN LADEN’S al-Qaeda network held detailed plans for nuclear devices and other terrorist bombs in one of its Kabul headquarters. The Times discovered the partly burnt documents in a hastily abandoned safe house in the Karta Parwan quarter of the city. Written in Arabic, German, Urdu and English, the notes give detailed designs for missiles, bombs and nuclear weapons. There are descriptions of how the detonation of TNT compresses plutonium into a critical mass, sparking a chain reaction, and ultimately a thermonuclear reaction. Both President Bush and British ministers are convinced that bin Laden has access to nuclear material and Mr Bush said earlier this month that al-Qaeda was “seeking chemical, biological and nuclear weapons”. The discovery of the detailed bomb-making instructions, along with studies into chemical and nuclear devices, confirms the West’s worst fears and raises the spectre of plans for an attack that would far exceed the September 11 atrocities in scale and gravity. Nuclear experts say the design suggests that bin Laden may be working on a fission device, similar to Fat Man, the bomb dropped on Nagasaki. However, they emphasised that it was extremely difficult to build a viable warhead. While the terrorists may not yet have the capability to build such weapons, their hopes of doing so are clear. One set of notes, written on headed notepaper from the Hotel Grand in Peshawar and dated April 26, 1998, says: “Naturally the explosive liquid has a very high mechanical energy which is translated into destructive force. But it can be tamed, controlled and can be used as a useful propulsive fuel if certain methods are applied to it. A supersonic moving missile has a shock wave. That shock wave can be used to contain an external combustion behind the missile . . .” The document was one of many found in two of four al-Qaeda houses which had been used by Arabs and Pakistanis and even reportedly by bin Laden himself. The houses — two in the Karta Parwan district and the others further to the east — were abandoned on Monday as Taleban units and their allies fled the city. Attempts had been made to burn the evidence, but many documents still remained. They included studies into the development of a kinetic energy supergun capable of firing chemical or nuclear warheads, external propulsion missiles, preliminary research on the creation of a thermonuclear device, as well as a multitude of instructions for making smaller bombs. There were also studies into Western special forces’ hostage rescue techniques, phone numbers for industrial chemical and synthetic producers, flight manuals, aerodynamic research, and advanced physics and chemistry manuals. The houses were identified by local people. Looters had concentrated on more appetising objects, ignoring foreign language documents that were of no use to them. Bin Laden sees it as his “religious duty” to obtain a nuclear bomb. In an interview with a Pakistani journalist last week, he threatened: “If America used chemical or nuclear weapons against us then we may retort with chemical and nuclear weapons as deterrent.” Intelligence agencies already have indirect evidence from defectors, middlemen and scientists of bin Laden’s obsession with obtaining or producing a nuclear device. Al-Qaeda agents are known to have spent more than £1 million trying to obtain enough fissile material to make a “dirty bomb” that, if detonated with TNT in a populous area, could kill thousands and contaminate it for decades. Intelligence sources told The Times last month that bin Laden and al-Qaeda had acquired nuclear materials illegally from Pakistan. And at least ten Pakistani nuclear scientists have been contacted by agents for the Taleban and al-Qaeda in the past two years, according to reports. Fears that bin Laden has components for a nuclear weapon is believed to lie behind the warnings from President Bush and Tony Blair that he would commit worse atrocities than the suicide assaults in America if he could.The Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “Bin Laden would have killed 600,000 people on September 11 if he could have done. This underlines again why he has to be stopped. ” Copyright 2001 Times Newspapers Ltd

To: marc ultra who wrote (1590)	11/16/2001 7:51:01 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

marc, you're right. whatever you call it the numbers don't lie and the market has definitely been behaving in a bullish manner. its only when you examine it on a valuation basis that it scares you. and in my opinion there is reason to be scared. but all the positive things you decribed are true and the market does climb a wall of worry. it would be so much easier if we would just retrest the sept lows<g>

To: marc ultra who wrote (1590)	11/25/2001 10:33:58 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

marc u: Amazing how fast investment advisor bullish sentiment has risen since Sept 29. Then it was 44.5% Bullish (33.7% Bulls and 42.1% Bears). During the last 8 weeks, it has steadily risen to 62.1% Bullish (46.9% Bulls and 28.6% Bears). And the VIX has dropped during the same period from the mid 30's down to 24.8 (I believe the 52 week low is 20.29). And then there's all that CNBC Happy Days are Here Again Talk on TV - time lag for FED stimulus to work has passed, lower oil prices will stimulate the economy, tax cuts will stimulate the economy, sharp recovery early next year is at hand so don't miss the train. I thought the actual layoffs were just revving up, 2001Q4 corporate earnings will be terrible and estimates of 2002Q1 earnings were dubious, industrial capacity is now at less than 75% making it unlikely companies will expand plants for some time to come, companies servicing the fledging auto industry are forcing their workers to take 7% pay cuts, rising interest rates are reducing valuations of future estimated earnings, the new (presumed) bull market has climbed that wall of worry, no signs new air security measures will get the public flying again in significant numbers any time soon, the terror cloud from secret cells in the USA is still above in our skies despite successes in Afghanistan .... Sure am getting the feeling Bulls are setting themselves up for disappointment by sipping their hope cocktail in anticipation of big improvements in 2002 earnings to support significantly higher equity prices when valuations in the current environment are still very high. Could we be setting up for the final wash out cycle in this bear market? P