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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4005)	11/15/2001 10:54:50 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

<oil price deflation> Production was on the decline in places like the North Sea (just peaked and is now turning down) and GOM even last year during the boom. New GOM finds are depleting at 40% IN THE FIRST YEAR. The impending fall off in new exploration and development will merely acerbate the production decline already underway, and enlarge the problem of meeting energy needs in just a few short years. The same can be said of all commodities. This deflation is going to create a huge supply problem. Alea lacta est. Translate: The die is cast.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4005)	11/15/2001 11:08:13 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George. Please read my posts. NOT in hi grade corps Am in medium grades. Mostly BBB- to BBB+. They are doing just fine.<g> Playing the closure of the huge yield gap that's opened between treasuries and corps is a classic no brainer play at this point in EVERYrecession. You're welcomed to trade junk if that's consistent with your risk profile. But I'll take the more lower risk approach vis a vis default risk with medium grade paper thank you<G>. Don't mind discussing the markets with you. But please don't use straw men to make your points ala talking about issues I've never owned, like AAA corps, OK?<g> TIA Now as for you other statements that THE market bottom is in and we aren't in a deflation?!. You're welcome to argue all you want. The market will prove you wrong after this war celebration rally is over. Hard to say how far the exuberance of victory might carry this bull trap. With consolidations, it might even run into early next year. Whatever it takes to get all the sentiment measures to bullish extremes will finish this rally. Then the hammer will fall. Count on it. You were pumping your gold guru Kaplan's supposedly good track record along with his optimistic ST gold forecasts a few weeks ago. But he's been wrong wrong wrong just as you're going to be about THE bottom being in this market AND about LT deflation. Sorry. But fwiw, that's MVVHO. And you're welcome to the last word. No offense intended. But, you've had your quota of my time for today. Gotta get to work. Cya, Isopatch