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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (4026)	11/15/2001 12:48:27 PM
From: lh56	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

yup... have this feeling, somewhat like wiley coyote, out in midair, once again, who hasn't quite realized he's missed the turn and that brisk, fresh air feeling from below isn't indian summer... got a buy order in for some more harmony gold @$5. regards, larry

To: isopatch who wrote (4026)	11/15/2001 4:38:30 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

could you provide the iso-metrics for the iso-thesis pls. While the posturing over oil market share has surely had it's effect this week, there are inventory and production capacity moves in the metals and paper industries at least that point to a lessening of forward downward pricing pressure not an increase. The M2 money supply keeps pumping, contrary to monetary policy of any previous deflationary period. Your comment regarding "hoarding" cash reserves seems rather excessive. Certainly one of the results of the past debt explosion both corporate and personal will be balance sheet repair. Much of the "new" money will initially go toward that end as opposed to the consumption the economy needs. The current market pop I agree has been fueled by a number of investment shifts from bonds to equities. Unfortunately the valuation models which led to the interest rate induced feeding frenzy will come under scrutiny soon. Many of those models, while dropping longterm interest rate assumptions, also neglected to consider that earnings growth also needs to be lowered. Now that the first wave of return chasing money has flowed in, I suspect earnings valuation models will lag by some months (at least) before kicking in. I also agree that the retail boomlet this week is misguided. October numbers were higher on the basis of auto give aways and compared to a month when the country was glued to the tv 24/7. Compared to august, retail was down. I apologize if I missed the evidence for the isothink in a previous post, but could you flesh out the evidence for your deflationary thesis please? mt