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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (94441)	11/15/2001 4:02:43 PM
From: CpsOmis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Hi Gary... Big Dog and the others 'in the know' in the oil 'bidness' have moved to Big Dogs Boom Boom Room Subject 50987 Also, there is a thread called High Tolerance Plasticity. They moved there to moderate out some of the more undesirable elements that continued to turn this thread into a circus... they created an intellectual ghetto known as SDII..... they talk gold and economic meltdown theories there. Cosmo

To: Gary Burton who wrote (94441)	11/16/2001 10:10:27 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Gary B ["Odds favour Sept27 low of $58 falling--and also a shot at breaking 98 lows slightly-to mid42-45 worst case...will look more closely tonight."] ...the man, the human E-Wave himself - Gary Burton returns ~ And was that Marc Chatman, along with Bullsky as well ?...it must be homecoming reunion week (VBG) ? As far as PGO Gary... I haven't followed it of late. But, you mentioned the magic word there - DEBT. I think we all remember Hvide, Freide Goldman et al and what former high flyers at cyclical tops can fall to - at cyclical bottoms...due to debt. On my re-entries here - I closed all my oilpatch shorts and I'm only trading into blow off's & quickly flipping some profits & keeping those intial entry "calls/Leaps" as potential "Zero Cost" basis early entry positions. I'm most likely done shorting; but I'm not comfortable building any portfolio weightings in oils as yet. Personally; I agree with your E-Wave call of the "TURNS" recent low of 58 failing soon... due soley to fundamentals. The global recession is clearly intact - if indeed; not accelerating in Europe and may accelerate here in the USA as well. Oil just blew off 10%... OPEC is in a game of chicken with Russia. Saudia Arabia is looking like an "IRAN-fundamentalist-overthrow Deja Vu all over again" in the making etc... and companies like APA just announced huge Cap Ex cuts .. Enron imploded and earnings are rolling over sectorwide and we're facing Energy Sector comps to the coldest Nov & Dec in history last year. I will begin (keyword there - BEGIN) re-entering OSX stocks for another flip trade but, only sub OSX 60 for now (not that I'll chase "every" move sub 60 either however - it depends on global events etc) - with my goal of retaining only positions equal to the profits made on the trade... ie: zero cost basis shares/calls/leaps.... as that way entering a little early at 58 doesn't hurt me if we blow off to OSX 45, or new alltime lows etc. I think unfortuantely we'll have another major domestic terrorism act and one must discount EVERYTHING - including total portfolio exposure here - given that reality. The rules have changed since Sept 11th imho. What would a "dirty nuke" exploding in Wall Street - making in uninhabitable for decades, killing thousands more - do to the US Financial system & market ? While hi-tech missle laden nukes and even suitcase nukes are likely beyond the Terrorists; "dirty" bombs laden with nuclear waste are not... Fundamentally on a valuation basis - given earnings and the present global economic environment - I think DOW 6-7000 and a sub 1000 NAZ are what reality valuations call for ... and that isn't even factoring in a "Discount" for another terrorist act. My thinking is yes; OSX 58 on down seems cheap... but we've had OSX 58 at DOW 9800. Where would the OSX be - at DOW 6800 - after another domestic Terrorist Event ? Exercising patience, prudence and risk aversion and a little hit & run re-entry trading is all I'm doing here - along with maintaining what I view as the ultimate core defensive position (in gold/silver stocks) that this enviornment mandates. I think on a LT basis - baring any further domestic Terrorist events; that anything sub OSX 60 is a safe Longterm value entry with the likeliehood of becoming a "double" on the next uside cycle. BUT ! - I personally; am not willing to "discount" any further domestic Terrorist acts and sadly think that we are yet to see a historic domestic terrorist event unfold that will rock the foundations of the market... given that and also, that historic valuations simply do NOT support anything above DOW 6-7000 and NAZ 1000 here imho... keeps me in gold/silver and some hit & run trades. I think maintaing a 10%ish Crude Oil levered position due to the potential of a "WAR/Oil Supply disruption" rally is prudent; but I'm not even tempted here in building a portfolio weighting back in Oils... not at DOW 9800 and without a further Terrorism Risk/Discount being applied to this market... as presently there isn't one...we're actually priced now for a euphoric reaction to the real 1999-2000 economy... not the 2001-2002 bubble retraction/recession... This isn't "irrational exuberance" here any longer; it's IRRATIONAL DENIAL imho....