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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (24236)11/15/2001 4:10:59 PM
From: Paul Shread  Respond to of 52237
 
Interesting - looks like a broadening top with a throw over before the retest in 1974 - just like we're getting here. Of course, the parallel ends at valuation, but what's a PE of 30 vs. a PE of 7.5? A small matter. -g-

Thought SPX decline was 37% peak to trough; close enough, I guess. Dow maybe 32% at its low. 40% bears have historically occurred every 20 years, so we were overdue. Still could happen. ;-)



To: Terry Whitman who wrote (24236)11/15/2001 4:24:10 PM
From: Paul Shread  Respond to of 52237
 
Back to the presidential cycle - it's much easier historically to get a 50% pop after a decline of 40%-45% on the Dow. In fact, there's never been a decline that's gone much further than that without producing a 50% rally, maybe 48% in 1929 and 1974. FWIW. Not many examples over the course of history on that one, though, maybe 7.


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