Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5969)	11/15/2001 7:23:13 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I believe your alternative is a modification of the 2000 drop as opposed your preferred turnips' repeat of the 1987 drop. Some Nasdaq numbers from 2000 and 2001: 2000 - Drop from 3-10-2000 high of 5132 to 5-24 low of 3042 (40.7% drop) 2001-drop from May 22 high of 2328 to Sept. 21 low of 1387 (40.5% drop) Rise from 3042 to 4289 on 7-17-2000 (41% gain) (2001 rise from 1387 to 1922 38.5% gain) Drop to 3521 on 8-4-2000 (18% drop) (Dec 2001 projected drop from 1922 to 1628, 15.3% drop) Rise to 4260 on 9-1-2000 (21% gain) (Jan 2002 projected rise from 1628 to 1922, 18% gain) Drop to 2252 on Jan 3 2001 (47% drop) (Big question mark in late March/Early April 2002. A drop from 1922 to 1425 is only 26%. A drop from 1922 to 1250 is 35%). I guess this is where the difficulty begins. This rolling top is throwing things off a bit. The H&S result seems to be getting strung out, which I believe may be what is causing some difficulties in the turnips' preferred scenario. The terrorism, war, and possible cessation of hostilities may have altered the turnips' preferred path somewhat. Furthermore, possible continued tech weakness into 3Q 2002 may also possibly alter the course. The SOX and internet infrastructure groups are particularly weak into that period. Anyway, I'm trying to interpret the turnips possible alternative path, and though I've probably missed a bunch, some of this might jell with Zeev's thinking.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5969)	11/18/2001 10:52:39 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, how does your scenario 2 reconcile with the cycle highs many are forecasting on Dec. 14? I guess it's a bit early for them to call Dec. 14th a high, but it could be a lower high like 1750 or so. It is looking more and more like scenario 2 is the likely one.