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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (5060)	11/15/2001 6:29:53 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

Could be a sign that oil is about to really plunge, don't you think? If the dollar falls dramatically because no one needs to hold as many dollars due to the deflating price of oil, AND corporate profit increases are STILL more than 6 months away, it could place tremendous pressure on the dollar. But then again, it seems that this economic pressure will be matched, or exceeded in the economies of our major competitors. If we're catching an economic "cold", they will likely catch pneumonia. It will be interesting to see if this is the final rally in the USD, in advance of breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders formation on the weekly chart, or whether we're about to see renewed upside on bond yields: futures.tradingcharts.com Btw, when you punch in the Bollinger Bands on this chart, you can see the bond market is drastically oversold and yields excessively high (as money slushed over to the equity markets). Time for another rally in bonds, which probably answers my question above about the future for the USD. The XAU is looking oversold right now, so it's due for a rally, although it may bump around in this price territory for a few more trading days. Tough to get "happy" about gold in a deflationary period with money still flowing to the USD. But eventually the dollar will have to come down... (or will it?).. Really tough to come up with a valid model for what to expect over the coming months. But the VIX, as you pointed out, is looking to spice up the market's life. Hawk