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To: russwinter who wrote (21312)	11/15/2001 11:42:57 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 209892

Hi russ, Excellent post Thank you, Peter

To: russwinter who wrote (21312)	11/20/2001 12:41:11 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 209892

I would like to add a couple points to you excellent response to bobcor's excellent post: 1.) I think a very powerful mover of future commodity and basic materials prices is exchange rates. The strong U.S. dollar has been a prime mover in keeping these prices down as more and more are sourced abroad. 2.) bobcor's assertion that inflation will occur depending on where the money is makes lot's of sense... I would simply add that it may be worth pondering where it will go in the future. He contends i rates will stay low for a long time due to this fact, however I could imagine other destinations for these funds... especially if 1.) above is taken into consideration. IMO Gold may very well suddenly explode as alternatives dry up... a falling dollar could well create all sorts of distortions erroding the value of US$ denominated fixed income securities. You could easily have rising prices of certain imported items despite falling demand. 3.) I have been a critic of the "pig in a python" reason to be bullish, calling it "The modified greater fool theory". This is not to say that the powerful demographic argument is meaningless... but I have surmised that it simply means that those individuals [the pig(s) if you will] who supposedly will keep their nose in the equity trough till they turn 65 or whatever, won't necessarily do anything of the kind. They WILL however do what seems to make sense at any given time and ARE a meaningul force... the point being that they may very well pile into other asset classes [bobcor suggests fixed income] to protect their nesteggs... be it foreign securities, metals, or whathaveyou. All in all I realize that adding a falling dollar to bobcor's equation bolsters his excellent post, just wanted to throw this possibility into the mix. DAK