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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnG who wrote (16605)	11/16/2001 10:00:41 AM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 34857

Wireless Industry Should Not Hype (European) 3G Launch By Paul de Bendern HELSINKI (Reuters) - The wireless industry should not hype the launch of fast third-generation (3G) mobile phones and services in Europe as it is unlikely they will be ready next year, wireless analysts said on Thursday. Manufacturers and telecoms operators are promising the availability of 3G phones in Europe by next October that will enable consumers to easily and quickly send and receive e-mails and digital images as well as download quality music. ``We don't see 3G up and running by the end of next year in Europe. We're forecasting shipments in the first quarter of 2003,'' said senior analyst Philip Taylor at the Yankee Group, a Boston-based technology research group. ``It would be healthier for operators and manufacturers to commit themselves to a more realistic timetable.'' Consumers have so far given a lukewarm reception to ''always-on'' high-speed Internet-enabled phones using GPRS -- an intermediary technology to 3G -- currently on sale in Europe. So to speed up the wireless market, leading industry players spearheaded by Nokia (news - web sites) agreed earlier this week to work together to ensure that viewing Internet content over phones from any country on any device is a reality soon. But industry experts and some carriers say the wireless Internet will be far from ready next year. Vodafone CEO Chris Gent said the world's largest mobile phone operator would start the public launch of 3G services in October, subject to the availability of handsets, but did not expect dual-band phones to ship significantly until mid-2003. ``We're saving our gunpowder, we think the prime time (for fast cellphone data services) will be 2003-2004,'' Merrill Lynch Chief Technology Officer John McKinley told a conference. Many carriers are acting to ensure GPRS phones work on networks in Europe and that exciting services that go beyond the hugely popular short message services (SMS) are available. Until GPRS is a hit in Europe, even faster 3G will be delayed, said Timo Ahomaki, director of product development at the mobile phone operations of Finland's largest carrier Sonera. TIMETABLE SHAKY Top phone makers Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson (news - web sites) and Siemens are promising to deliver 3G handsets in volumes at the end of 2002 in Europe, but they have been very coy about what the devices will look like. Not much is known about what to expect other than the phones will have color screens, multimedia messaging services and use Internet-friendly Java software. European manufacturers are way behind Japanese peers like Matsushita Communication Industrial and NEC, who have already introduced sophisticated 3G phones in Japan. Nokia, the world's largest handset maker, is the most optimistic in Europe, saying it will start selling 3G phones in the third quarter with millions of units sold by the fourth. Redeye, a consultancy, is skeptical of big sales of 3G phones at the end of 2002. It sees 3G volumes only in 2004. Sonera says manufacturers, racing against time to have 3G phones ready, may opt to add handheld computer functions to devices or add big color screens as a way to lure customers. But with few 3G services like video clips or conferencing expected to be available then, and handsets much like GPRS devices, the incentive to upgrade may not be there. ``A very creative operator told me it can't get any exciting handsets, a videophone or a lifestyle device. There are no sexy models,'' said Mark Paxman, consultant at PA Consulting. RELIABILITY OF 3G PHONES? The first phones will be simple because of the technological difficulties of building a 3G cellphone, so that initially they will be for a small market. These problems will only be phased out in the second line of models, coming out 24 months after the first in about 2004. The first 3G phones by Nokia and Sony Ericsson will work on GSM and the separate 3G network WCDMA (news - web sites), set up for new services. But one big questions is how reliable the dual-mode phones will be. It will be the first time one phone has used such different and complex phone standards and networks. In Japan, the dominant operator NTT DoCoMo (news - web sites) delayed the launch of the world's first 3G service to last month because of difficulties with the handset technology and the network. And Japan has had it easier as it uses a single standard for the network and all manufacturers of 3G phones build them according to NTT DoCoMo's strict specifications. This will not be the case in Europe and this worries many industry analysts.