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To: Braincramp who wrote (1973)	11/16/2001 3:48:20 PM
From: bill	Respond to of 11633

The oil market is not rational in the sense that it is often not driven by profit but by politics. Many producers need oil money to stay in power and even stay alive. You are quite right about the financial "irrationality" of the Russian position. But, they may not be responding financially. Bush and Putin just had what would have been an historic mtg if not for allthe press coverage on terrorism. Right now the US needs low oil prices to support its economy in the face of recession. Russia can keep those prices down. It may be that there is a quid pro quo down the road for the Russians. Ten dollar oil would help bail out the airlines. It would lower the CPI dramatically. It would make a lot of businesses profitable. I doubt if a ten dollar price is sustainable. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a period of 15US oil.

To: Braincramp who wrote (1973)	11/16/2001 6:27:24 PM
From: trustmanic	Respond to of 11633

Russian still a long way to learn production control. They are not flexible in production.Because they don't layoff, cut production or slow down production lines like us until they feel the whole situation is unmanageable. They are learning anyway but it take time.