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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (134836)	11/16/2001 1:06:28 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Of course. My bet is the productivity gained from this stew is compelling. The Internet exploded because it was a backfill opportunity in an established and rapidly growing industry: desktop computing. There were all sorts of valid reasons why capital was attracted to this (and biotech, too), but it was all pioneering, and pioneers can get arrows in their backs. The validity of the possible productivity gains attracted tons of capital but much of it got wasted because it couldn't be absorbed efficiently enough in the compressed time it was being offered. Hence things like Superbowl commercials and corporate flameouts. That doesn't mean that the boom was a tulip mania. It means it got ahead of itself. The survivors may have been baptized in fire but they've grabed alot of territory. The barriers of entry have risen since the 1997-99 gold rush.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (134836)	11/16/2001 2:14:14 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

There are new things in Amazon's model compared to a catalog retailer. Universal access. Esentially free distribution. Advanced search. Dynamic pricing. Amazon's SKU list would fill a stack of paper catalogs too thick to imagine, always current. And now Amazon is leveraging its front end to piggy-back retail category leaders like Toys R Us.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (134836)	11/18/2001 6:17:04 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

In the case of AMZN, I said years ago that it was nothing but a mail-order retailer using a new technology. If they can't figure out how to make money at the volumes they do now, there is something seriously wrong with their operating model, their management or both. Nothing "new" about those economics. Bob, You are quite correct. They missed the advantage of dual channel selling. In the current enviornment I do not see a way to suceed being a pure play on either side. Every major successful retailer has an on-line selling site to add to their existing selling model. This make the infrastructure of buildings, etc. and employees more efficient. Amazon's now focus more on the service side makes sense but they now have a huge investment with debt in distribution centers. That was a critical error in my opinion. They should have created agreements with existing outlets and let those outlets deal with the logistics.