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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (41684)	11/16/2001 1:51:19 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Capacity utilization fell to 74.8%, from a revised level of 75.7% in the previous month. Capacity utilization is now at its lowest level since 1983. The low capacity utilization rate is eliminating supply bottlenecks and has virtually eliminated all inflationary pressure from the industrial component of the economy. Despite the record pace of vehicle sales in October, auto production fell by 4% in October.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (41684)	11/16/2001 11:20:23 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

It is to OPEC's advantage to keep crude oil prices at $15/bbl or lower for a year or two. The primary reason is to make Americans complacent again and as long as oil prices stay low, there will be stronger opposition to Alaska exploration or construction nuclear power plants. Research for alternative energy may also be cut. The two year period is approximately the duration that worldwide economies will recover and start to regenerate at full steam again, which corresponds to peak energy demand. Your assessment of US economic recovery in mid 2002 is reasonable. It may be third quarter of 2002 at the latest. In the meantime, the doctor has ordered a small scale "irrational exhuberance" in the stock market. It is the surest and fastest way to bring out consumers' confidence when they see their retirement and mutual funds statements show consecutive positive numbers. It will take 2 or 3 positive quarterly statements to bring back the confidence because they got burned in previous 8 quarters. It takes time to erase the long "I am getting poorer by the month" memories. The baby boomers are at or near retirement age and they tend to become more conservative, specially after seeing their golden retirement accounts vaporized. The yuppies may be the first ones to come forward, but their number and spending power is not as great as the baby boomers. Generation X do not have spending power yet, and they were the ones who got burned the worst from the collapse of NASDAQ market mania.