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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (346)	11/16/2001 4:00:10 PM
From: Scoobah	Respond to of 32591

Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat? 2130 GMT, 011115 Summary Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar has threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time." Omar's threat is meant to rally his allies and fighters by showing that, despite claims to the contrary, the Taliban and al Qaeda are not defeated. Although al Qaeda's operational capabilities in the United States remain in question, if they have any ability to strike again, they will -- and soon. Analysis Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time" during an interview with the BBC's Pushtu service Nov. 15. Omar said the situation in Afghanistan "is related to a bigger cause -- that is the destruction of America" and warned "the plan is going ahead" and is being "implemented." Omar's threats raise a question: Are these simply the defiant words of a defeated foe or is there credibility to the warning? His prediction of the imminent destruction of the United States is at its core a message to his allies and fighters that, despite claims to the contrary, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda are defeated. To avoid losing all legitimacy or control, Omar and terrorism suspect Osama bin Laden must strike back at the United States -- and soon. The territorial gains by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan during the past week have raised serious questions about the Taliban's remaining capabilities. Although it appears that the core Taliban and al Qaeda fighters are preparing for guerrilla warfare -- their preferred style of fighting -- the rapid withdrawal has likely left many fighters and supporters questioning the leadership of Omar and bin Laden. The ability of the Taliban and al Qaeda to remain at the core of a militant Islamist struggle against Washington now rests on their ability to demonstrate continued effectiveness. Assuming Omar's message is more than just a final gasp, one must assess the ultimate purpose of his comments. In part, they are a rallying cry to forces and supporters inside Afghanistan. In the BBC interview, Omar dismisses the Taliban retreat as insubstantial. He points out that territorial gains and losses in Afghanistan are regular occurrences and that the tide can change again as swiftly as before. Instead, he repeatedly calls the withdrawal part of the "screening" of the Taliban: the removal of forces that are not loyal and the cleansing of the "sins" of the others. He also says there will be no compromise between the Taliban and any coalition government in Kabul, bluntly stating that the Taliban "prefer death" to being "part of an evil government." This is a clear message to all Afghans that cooperation with the Northern Alliance or the United Nations is unacceptable. The message is also directed at supporters and fighters outside Afghanistan, pointing them toward what Omar views as the higher calling of annihilating the Great Satan. Omar reiterates several times that every action in Afghanistan is part of a larger goal: "the extinction of America." This only adds impetus to the need for a new attack on the United States lest Omar, the Taliban and al Qaeda prove all bluster. A new strike would send a clear message to Washington as well: The tactical victory in Afghanistan was a useless diversion because the real war is not being fought there, but on U.S. soil. It is unclear whether al Qaeda and the Taliban expended all of their U.S.-based resources in the Sept. 11 attacks or, if not, whether anti-terrorism efforts have seriously hindered their ability to act. The planning that went into the Sept. 11 attacks, however, strongly suggests that terrorist cells are already established inside the United States and may simply be awaiting instructions to strike. Both to ensure loyalty and to demonstrate to the U.S. government that the battle in Afghanistan has little bearing on the greater war, the Taliban and al Qaeda will use any means in their power to strike a high-profile blow against targets on American soil. Failing this, there is little they can do to remain legitimate in their global fight against the United States. stratfor.com

To: Machaon who wrote (346)	11/16/2001 4:00:10 PM
From: Scoobah	Respond to of 32591

Omar: Desperate Bluff or Credible Threat? 2130 GMT, 011115 Summary Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar has threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time." Omar's threat is meant to rally his allies and fighters by showing that, despite claims to the contrary, the Taliban and al Qaeda are not defeated. Although al Qaeda's operational capabilities in the United States remain in question, if they have any ability to strike again, they will -- and soon. Analysis Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar threatened the destruction of the United States "within a short period of time" during an interview with the BBC's Pushtu service Nov. 15. Omar said the situation in Afghanistan "is related to a bigger cause -- that is the destruction of America" and warned "the plan is going ahead" and is being "implemented." Omar's threats raise a question: Are these simply the defiant words of a defeated foe or is there credibility to the warning? His prediction of the imminent destruction of the United States is at its core a message to his allies and fighters that, despite claims to the contrary, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda are defeated. To avoid losing all legitimacy or control, Omar and terrorism suspect Osama bin Laden must strike back at the United States -- and soon. The territorial gains by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan during the past week have raised serious questions about the Taliban's remaining capabilities. Although it appears that the core Taliban and al Qaeda fighters are preparing for guerrilla warfare -- their preferred style of fighting -- the rapid withdrawal has likely left many fighters and supporters questioning the leadership of Omar and bin Laden.

To: Machaon who wrote (346)	11/16/2001 4:17:54 PM
From: Elmer Flugum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32591

I am concerned about peace in the Middle East and Israel/Palestine is part of it.

To: Machaon who wrote (346)	11/16/2001 4:35:05 PM
From: Scoobah	Respond to of 32591

12 November 2001 Confession in the Investigation of an Islamic Jihad Activist who was Arrested at the Beginning of the Month The Israel Security Agency in cooperation with the IDF and the Israel Police, arrested at the beginning of the month an Islamic Jihad activist who participated in a line of terrorist attacks in Israel, in Jewish communities in the Tul Karem area and against IDF forces. The detainee is Beha Yusef Matzarva, 21 years old from the Nur Sams refugee camp near Tul Karem. Matzarva is associated with Force 17, the presidential guard of Arafat. In his investigation he confessed while servicing in the Palestinian security services he was recruited to the Islamic Jihad, to a military cell that operated under the direct orders of the head of the military branch in Tul Karem, Assad Daka, who was killed by IDF forces a month ago. Matzvara was arrested at the beginning of the month in the Tul Karem area, during an attempt to plant a bomb against IDF forces. He admitted in his investigation that he carried out a line of terror attacks including: * Bomb planted in the Netanya market in March 2001 that was detonated by Israel Police. * Car bomb near the Ort school in Netanya in May 2001 that injured 8 people and caused property damage. * Bomb that exploded near an armored personnel vehicle in October 2001 and caused no casualties. * Placing a death trap for his Jewish employer who successfully escaped the ambush. * A long line of shooting attacks and bombing against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians in the Tul Karem area. Matzvara confessed that he was also involved in the preparation of additional bombs with different cells of the Islamic Jihad and was used as a delegate of the organization between Tul Karem and Jenin. Matzvara's investigation is still underway. It must be emphasized that this is not the first time that Palestinian security force members have been recruited to the Islamic Jihad and have carried out attacks in its name. The prime example of this phenomenon is represented by the terrorist attack in Hadera on 28/10/01. idf.il