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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (24337)	11/16/2001 8:33:23 PM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

One of these days you should let Hal come to the front stage and take a bow. So far the poor guy has only been taking flak for you, nothing else. [Just kidding] Ibexx

To: TREND1 who wrote (24337)	11/16/2001 10:42:38 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Larry, my 2 pennies, fwiw .....I think the conceptual problem is a little deeper than the P/E issue you mention. Rather, the debate is firstly whether there will be an economic cycle which will provide meaningful vehicles in which to invest, and secondly, which sector will provide the leadership for investment. Each decade has had its leader ... oil, pharms, cyclical, tech etc.... with each new decade having had a different leader. Regarding the first, the 50 year cycle suggests we're in the time period when the economy & equity markets may not do well. History shows the decline is preceeded by an excessive economic (and in late cycles, market) boom.... followed thereafter by the bust. Recent modern history is falling into the pattern well ... which leads to many people just playing the shorter cycles or waves. Assuming hte cycle bust isn't upon us, the second issue, envisioning the investment sector leader for 2001-2010 is difficult. Perhaps it will be biotech .... maybe energy ... personally I can't think of any .... None of this invalidates what you have outlined .. because as we all know ... its not about being right ... its all about timing. Its just that things maybe different this time ..... and so far there's nothing to show it isn't. Course ... you probably know all this ... but it is Friday night and I have to post something sometime ... LOL Have a good weekend everyone ! Regards Stephen