Damn Slider!!! It took me forever to read your first post, I haven't got to the second one yet. I'll do that later.
Now, where should I begin?
OK let me start with what you refer to as a fabrication. I read your post to say that you were 10% invested in energy. Now you have explained that it was after you sold some positions. OK, I'll give you that. It wasn't clear that was what you did but it is possible I misread it. In that case I owe you an apology.
I apologize for misreading your comment.
There is a difference between a fabrication and a misstatement. I don't have a desire to fabricate, if you made the call, you made the call, and I have no problem congratulating you for it. I've congratulated you publicly before, I have no problem doing so again when you're spot on.
Now, let's clear up some misconceptions you have about me and some of the others here.
>> You missed the DCB trading "TURN" at OSX 58 - then got back on the long bandwagon at OSX 80 and got your asses whipsawed again... whodathunkit ? <<
Didn't miss squat! My focus was elsewhere, I've already covered that with you and my trades elsewhere were very successful. I've already posted that to you.
Most of us shorted energy on the way down. Some went long in the 60ish range, others left it alone. I'm not aware of any Chihuahua's buying at OSX 80 and getting whipsawed. Perhaps you can be more specific! I know some who didn't play it, but not anyone going long at that point and getting whipsawed.
Next misconception:
>> And 'bum & Kodiak have that ole Green Monster digging so deep down their crawl; that they have to resort to misrepresentation of a good call; made with good work. <<
Green Monster? The only Green Monster I have a fondness for is that Green Monster in Fenway Park.
Slider, there are quite a few people I admire on this thread, and some I'm envious of, Kodiak is one of them. I'm not "jealous" of anyone, especially you, because I believe I can be as good a trader or analyst as anyone here, as long as I keep working at it. And, I'm working at it! I'm not looking to be the best, I'm looking at improving myself and my game, and I'll take whatever comes. I'm not as smart as a lot of fellows here, but I'll do the best I can with what I have. If I were jealous of you, I wouldn't have apologized to you and congratulated you in the same post. Think about it!
You've made some good calls in the past. At times you're even a likable fellow. A lot of people have said they would enjoy reading you more if you'd just stop being an arsewhole. (I didn't want to say asshole because I don't want to offend Isopooch's sensibilities.)
You're not the only person who has a feel for the market, you're just the loudest. My problem with you is that you want all of the credit but give very little back in return. Quite a few people here have a good sense for the market and a good sense for trading, they just don't always agree with you and especially your timing. By your own admission, you're always early. When others time the play better than you, you rag them about getting on board with your infamous whodathunkit crap. They weren't following you, they saw the same thing you did but had better timing.
You may think Quehubo was foolish for max margining when he did, its not for me to say, it wasn't my money. Fact is he timed it well and a win is a win is a win. It doesn't matter if it was OSX 58 or OSX 65, he caught the trend and maximized his return. I think he should be congratulated for the call and I did so. I thought a recognition freak like yourself should have too, but that's your call.
>> let's set the facts of history aside for a while and decide where you humps see the patch and the broad market going from here - okie dokie (VBG) ? <<
Okie Dokie, that's fair.
I mentioned yesterday that I thought the OSX was nearing short term resistance. It did and bounced back some. Low demand is going to play hell with the price of oil. I think the Russians will end up losing this game of chicken with OPEC. Saudi Arabia can produce oil for $1 a barrel, Russia about $6 or more, I think. Saudi Arabia can drive Russia into the ground.
Will oil see $10 a barrel? I'm not sure. The only thing I'm sure about is any positions taken should be for short term trading only until demand starts to pick up. Weak analysis I know, but that's why I'm sitting on the sidelines wrt OSX. I don't have to play this one at this time.
Broader market? I mentioned earlier in the week that I thought the NASDAQ would pull back at the 1928-30 level. That would represent the 150 day moving average which is longer term resistance.
Since I like to trade what I see, as opposed to what I think, if I see the NAZ break the 150 day moving average on decent volume, it's another good short term play to the long side. A break above the 200 day MA and I go fully invested, mostly tech leaders. I don't know if it'll go that way, but I'm prepared for it if it does.
We're seeing a lot of sectors rising that indicate most people are expecting an economic recovery 6-9 months down the road. Retailers, metals, brokers and other cyclicals are rising. The broad range of sectors that normally rise in the early stages of an economic recovery are indicating we've seen the bottom.
We will probably see a pullback, per my post earlier in the week, but the market is indicating the bottom is in.
Earnings are still down considerably and will probably continue to stay down.
Pro forma earnings, forced liquidity into the market, the PPT team and Federal stimulus are creating another bubble, in my opinion. The problem here is that the market may continue to rise considerably before poor company earnings drive the market lower again. However, it may not retest the old lows if it rises high enough first.
So, I hope we have things straight now. Don't make me hit you over the head with a hammer, to get you to understand.
Carolina vs Clemson is today. I don't have time to get to your second post. I'll get to it later.
dabum |
