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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4115)	11/17/2001 12:52:29 AM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

Definitely good stuff. Thx/eom

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4115)	11/17/2001 8:30:04 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 36161

<address the structure of financial markets> That comment from Easy Al is about as close to a market manipulation and PPT confession as I can imagine. Looks like about the only bullet they have left (and it's a big one) is a competitive devaluation of the dollar. Wonder what the "cry uncle" unemployment rate will be in the US before they do it. I'd say 7% and rising will be it. Elections in 02 also. Message 16666466 In the last paragraph this writer speaks of thinning out whole industries to create new monopolies with pricing power. I think a little of that will happen with multi-nationals, particularly in resource industries, but domesticaly that "solution" causes too much unemployment. The devaluation would preserve American jobs, and that's what counts in a free for all.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4115)	11/18/2001 10:35:01 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Gleaned other key points from this weekend's Doug Noland classic. prudentbear.com Of course it was a very bad week for bond holders and credit paper junkies. I'm sure that there are two schools of thought as to why rates are backing up so severely: 1. discounting an economic recovery 2. hitting the wall on speculative and monetary excess in credit instruments. I subscribe to the second. Notable quotes from the Noland piece: "A credit system dependent on mortgage finance and leveraged speculation becomes acutely vulnerable TO HIGHER MARKET RATES." "When we contemplate the complexities of the inflation/deflation debate, let’s keep in mind that while the U.S. wallows in monetary excess, much of the world ()is starved for new finance. Larry Kudlow notwithstanding, sinking global commodity prices are not the consequence of a Fed failure to provide adequate liquidity. The dilemma has been that liquidity has had a distinct preference for playing where it perceives it can benefit from an inflationary bias (i.e. the U.S. credit market instruments prior to this week). () Resources, infrastructure, the American industrial base. A measure of the depression in the US production base: year to year. These are 1930's style declines. Data can be tracked weekly from Barron's Market Laboratory: Electric power: - 7.8% (Nov.10) Daily petroleum runs: -2.7% (Nov. 9) Steel: -15.4% (Nov. 10) Factory shipments: -9.8% (only through Sept) Meanwhile commodity users have gone from just in time inventories to not quite in time inventories. The effect then is to bankrupt suppliers. Sensing that, we are now seeing some initial signs of panic buying to secure supplies at distressed prices. Also from Barrons: "Panic buying in the cocoa market by chocolate manufacturers pushed futures up 28% in nine sessions." Similar activity was noted in coffee, sugar and cotton markets. Of course the real powder keg to all this are the speculative shorts and carry traders lined up against most of the world's commodities and long credit paper and distorting the markets even further. The geopolitical games in energy have obscured what was a great week for anti-bubble investors. We need to keep our eyes on this ball. Look for a dollar devaluation when US unemployment clears 7% (won't be long, January?) in an election year.