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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (79397)	11/17/2001 8:32:29 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116741

Alex re:["Are you still bullish on the pog ?"] ...yes...and very bullish on silver as well. One must realize that we've just seen a necessary and not unexpected massive effort from Greenpimp & the ESF/PPT to bouy the markets. Of late - Insiders on Wall St have all been in on the "game" - it's like Greenspan calls "Student Body Left" and everyone except us (the individual investor) - is in on the play... That the Commercials went short gold - as the "canary in the coal mine" (POG) was capped shouldn't have been a surprise. Imho; once things stabilize the US Dollar will be waltzed down in a slow steady policy move via a controlled descent... US Corporate Earnings require it & the US Manufacturing Industry require it...and it's inevitable anyway. The coming descent of the US Dollar is fundamentally good for gold. We've got a growing account deficit and Greenspan has the funny money-fiat presses smokin' 24 x 7 and that's ultimately good for gold as well. We're now seeing major consolidation in the mining companies... the POG is holding well and I think we re-test XAU 45ish here and then it's off for a multi-year secular gold & silver bull. From an investment standpoint it's as simple as this: 1. We're now within 9 points of the alltime low on the XAU index. 2. 5-6 times within the last 15 years we've penetrated XAU 125-150 on the upside. 3. That's 9 points downside to the alltime index low and 70 to 100 on the upside to levels we've been 5-6 times over the last 15 years...which is an 8 to 11:1 reward to risk ratio. In a cyclical sector - seldom do these risk:reward opportunities arise... we had one in the Oilpatch with OSX 45 in the fall of 1998 and the index tripled over the next 18 months... well; get ready for a little "Deja Vu - all over again" here for Gold & Silver Stocks folks... We should welcome a solid retest of XAU 45ish here... and I think we're going to get one... but, then imo, it's off to the races. The next shoe to drop ? ... who knows ? - a dirty nuke ? - an escalted biologic attack ? - a financial Rogue Wave event ? (Argentina, Turkey, Derivatives ?) - unattractive bond yields (a negative real rate on savings) and a continued BEAR Market that finally takes equity valuations to historic valuation norms - ie: DOW 6-7000 etc ? It simply amazes me that absolutely no "Risk Discount" for another Terrorist Act has been assigned to this market; let alone that given the global recessionary environment & collapsing earnings - that we're still at PE's nearly double of the 1990 recession. We're no longer "Irrationally Exuberant" - imho, we're now in - "IRRATIONAL DENIAL"...