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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (6380)	11/17/2001 9:44:35 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Ork, yes, an interesting read and supports the "double dip" recession scenario, where next year (possibly a little later), the then strapped consumer finally reigns in his spending. I just do not take the position of it is "right or it is wrong". I simply observe what is happening, and the fact is that the major recent refinancing cause reliquification of both consumers and corporations, thus economic expansion sometime in the second or third Q next year, before the next contraction and reequilibriation takes place. Zeev

To: orkrious who wrote (6380)	11/17/2001 1:15:32 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

ork from your link these remarks jump at me<<Don’t mistake market dynamics in this most unusual environment for true underlying fundamentals. There is today an incredible amount riding on the continued extreme monetary expansion emanating from one particular misbegotten sector of the U.S. credit system - mortgage finance. With this in mind, this week’s dismal U.S. credit market performance, and the drubbing in the agency market in particular, take on considerable significance.>> and <<Traditionally, lower Fed rates would work to boost expectations for rising business profitability, stimulating monetary expansion through the process of heightened bank lending financing (now more profitable) corporate investment. The financial world has changed tremendously over this long cycle. In reality it’s become borderline unrecognizable. Today, the Fed’s "magic" operates overwhelmingly through inciting consumer refinancing booms, fueling real estate inflation, and fostering additional speculative leveraging throughout the U.S. financial sector. We have always been very uncomfortable with these mechanisms, and our nerves have not been calmed or our concerns swayed by recent runaway excess. Specifically, these mechanisms are dangerously dysfunctional, as they repeatedly stoke and exacerbate Credit Bubble excess in the financial system as well as the economy.>> let that perhaps stimulate others to read who are interested is learning regards the dangerous game of leveraging--the House of Cards method of survival.Max

To: orkrious who wrote (6380)	11/17/2001 1:44:52 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

orkrious--there is one underlying danger of several that keeps striking me.Those who are using the cash gotten from this immense mortgage re-financing to invest in the market(thus pumping up the market) to only see the market fall will be put into major peril. I feel strongly Greenspan and the Fed are putting the public at large into major peril to satisfy his ever increasing myopic vision. Whenever i play out this leveraging game to it's eventual outcome i see a catastrophic end-game(could take years to play out). I don't know where we are now in the game--but the end-game i see as nightmare. To me this is the OBVIOUS outcome,but i have few companions--so all can relax. People who say well the doomsters always say this---well i was NOT a doomster (i am a relatively recent convert)--but as i become aware of what a historically unparalleled game of leveraging is at play i can see now matters are in fact different than ever before---dangerously different.Max