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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4125)	11/18/2001 12:23:57 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Russ -- move away from the ME as much as possible -- I disagree... Bomb them back to the Stone Age? If you want to send an entire civilization back to the Stone Age take away their access to capital. The Afghan economy, which consist mainly of the agrarian pursuit of producing opium poppies and educational facilities for terrorism is a the primary example of the effect of poverty and isolation from the rest of the world. Do you think the North America can afford the Talibanization of the entire Middle East? Look for a continued effort by the U.S. and it’s allies in forming new governments in countries that are sympathetic to terrorism. I suspect the White House over the next 10-12 months will handle the Iraqi situation with an increase focus on weapons and facility inspections, with the end game of invasion. This will only happen, like the Afghan affair, with the total co-operation of old allies and the new -- enlightened ME "friends." The psychological effect of divide and concur is in play – JMO… The divide and concur scenario is working on two levels – (1) economically, (2) militarily, the White House is nothing less than brilliant in the way it’s handling modern twenty first century diplomacy. BTW, an Iraqi invasion next fall will re-focus stock market speculation from the usual October doldrums to a new patriotic investment fever in our markets, tax loss selling? Don’t count on it this year, and I certainly wouldn’t count on it next year either. IMHO, I see at least 2 years of flat crude prices, at this level, or until world growth exceeds the current supply of crude. The reason I pick the 2 year number is because I believe this is the time it will take to finally bust the network of terrorism within the ME countries. - - I still like my energy holdings; the Alberta big caps that are levered to natural gas are still my favorites, I don’t care for the small caps in this environment. I also continue to see security issues with LNG tankers floating in and out of our port cities – my thinking here is terrorist understand the technology of the supertanker. And because of these security problems both Devon and Burlington gave us a glimpse of the true value of the North-American oilpatch with the take-overs of Anderson Exploration and Canadian Hunter. Might they know the supply problem for NG better than the investor? Time will tell… Since I'm not a short-term trader, I'm willing to stick this one out. Regards Frank P,