To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6388 ) 11/17/2001 11:24:48 AM From: Crimson Ghost Respond to of 99280 Several "cycle guys" with good records predicting a major top in mid-December. . . . Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time" Rick Ackerman's Trading Notes Friday, November 16, 2001 Living in Interesting Times Danger equals opportunity, according to the Chinese aphorism. Are we there yet? That is something that is usually difficult to know for certain -- unless, of course, you're one of those rare, true contrarians who invests when the figurative blood running in the streets becomes literal. For our part, we've started to nibble on put options offered on some of the issues tracked in the newsletter. But I discern no compelling reason to do so aggressively, even as evidence grows that an intermediate top is close at hand or perhaps already has been reached. A look at IBM's daily chart suggests why bears looking for a quick collapse could be disappointed and perhaps made poorer by imprudent speculation. Big Blue has been oscillating between the low 80s and 120 since last February, and that is good reason to suspect it will not be headed much higher any time soon. However, it should be recalled that the last time the stock was noodling around at these heights, it spent more than two months there, enriching only brazen sellers of options premium. Meanwhile, for what it's worth, there are a few pretty good "cycles" guys calling for a very major top around mid-December. Word of this comes by way of a recent conversation I had with Peter Eliades, who is no slouch himself in the market cycles department. Peter mentioned three gurus of distinctly different methods, each of whom anticipates a major downturn in about a month: One, a relative unknown from West Virginia, has made some impressive calls in recent years -- and that's impressive by Peter's standards. Another has been one of the few permabears I know of whose bear market scenario, first elucidated years ago, patiently posited an onset of an epic downturn in the economy in late 2001. Time-wise we're not quite there yet, but we should probably circle Friday, December 14, on our calendars. I note that my calendar has December 14 as the date of an "Annular Eclipse of the Sun," even if it somehow overlooked the once-in-a-lifetime meteor storm that is expected in the pre-dawn hours of November 18. Interesting skies, interesting times? ### Read Does The Plunge Protection Team Exist? also by Rick Ackerman Rick Ackerman's detailed strategies and forecasts for stocks, options and indexes appear daily at Market Wise Black Box. For a one-week free trial subscription to this service and to Wise Guide, which offers intraday analysis and real-time guidance from seasoned day traders, analysts and market professionals, click here. There you can also obtain Market Wise's $299 home study course for free, as well as information concerning the Broomfield, Colorado firm's educational programs and training seminars for serious traders of stocks and options. Over the past few years, I have taken subscriptions to dozens of advisory services. Hardly any of them actually give you advice that you can make money with. Rick Ackerman and Steve Saville are two of the best around, by far. And Rick's Black Box Forecasts are a blast.