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To: AllansAlias who wrote (21428)	11/17/2001 11:38:47 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

That count jives very well with my thoughts on sentiment. Ive been troubled by the very high VIX, and its refusal to budge down. We really need a signifigent amount of time and a rally to get everyone interested here again. Until people are fully aboard the Titanic will she sink. SO I plan to remain long the big cap's in lieu of this event.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21428)	11/17/2001 12:53:34 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Count off the Sep lows. Nearing the end of 3? geocities.com Let's assume we are in a 'c' wave per this morning's earlier post. I throw this chart up for discussion and critique. (You'll need a large monitor.) Cheers

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21428)	11/18/2001 4:49:28 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan- I can buy that argument, but why would c have to have such a high target. If c=a then we are already at the top. And why would c have to have 5 waves. I don't see 5 in the a. Could it be a 3-3-5 or do you have to have a 5-3-5.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21428)	11/19/2001 3:03:45 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

That is my preferred explanation here. I would have thought we'd see capitulation and a lasting bottom given the events, but it is fairly clear to me that we saw no real bottoming action. Those lows have the distinct feel of a headfake. While I haven't tried to make a count on the teeny timeframes, my feel is that it was a "b" bottom, and the down that preceded it from May-August was indeed "a". However, when you zoom out, it sure looks like we might be in a running flat for the big 4, which now has a=c. When reviewing behavior on this scale, I try not to get caught up in internal counts. I know it violates Elliot theory, but it's a tenet of mine that, when you've zoomed out far enough that the resolution of the fractals is lost, their internal counts are no longer important. SOX has hit my loony-target for this move, so I'm allowing it to be done here. However, an ending diagonal for "c" would be a distinct possibility, meaning one more minor new high. It is an excellent lesson in the perverse way of markets that, despite the clear deterioration in the economy, the market price level is probably HIGHER now thanks to 9/11 than it would have otherwise been due to the panic moves by the Fed. BC