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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (24361)	11/17/2001 7:52:34 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Value Line's comments on Air Lines (a few years ago) (1) Buy them when earnings are low (High PE's) (2) Sell them when earnings are high (Low PE's) Now many people wait until the earnings are good before they buy a stock. Try doing that on a Tech Cycle stock like AMAT and you will lose your money.IMHO. Buy Hey ! IT's your money ! It's your call ! Larry Dudash

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (24361)	11/17/2001 8:16:04 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 52237

Thanks for all the work Lee. wr

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (24361)	11/17/2001 8:40:09 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Lee, I asked Larry to clarify the PE situation with his perspective so I figure I should ask you as well. Is there any validity in the "buy high PE's in a down turn" thesis? Assuming for a moment that CSCO will be off to the races next year, they would have to increase their earnings quite a bit. The last 4 quarters they made .27 Estimates for the current fiscal year (ending July 02) call for .22 July '03 they call for .40 At 20 bucks we are talking a 74 PE with backwards PE. 90 PE forward earnings (how they will make .22 is beyond me with .03, .02, .04 for last 3 quarters (of which .04 counts for the coming fiscal year). So a 90 PE for a company that has negative growth over the next 12 months (estimated of course). Could CSCO pull a 100% growth rate and make anything near .44 by Oct '02? Giving them a premium, could they make even .30? wr

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (24361)	11/17/2001 9:53:17 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

OTOTO: screenshots of today's computer pc games avsim.com taken from microsoft flight sim 2002. (i have it)

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (24361)	11/18/2001 12:01:03 PM
From: thestockrider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Lee, here's something from Bill Gross' commentary at www.pimco.com on PEs versus inflation. pimco.com "All you really need to know about whether stock prices are now too high, too low, or just about right, is to surmise from Chart 2 that PEs are just about where they should be in a 1-2% inflationary world. PEs are fairly valued, but importantly – not going much higher. They can’t, you see. Inflation isn’t going much lower than zero and if it does, we enter a deflationary spin zone which knocks earnings for a giant negative loop. So rest content that PEs of 25-30x are close to max bull market PEs. Granted, they’ve been much higher in Japan, but those are bear market PEs reflecting an economy in destructive deflation." My examination of the graph indicated that Earnings/Price usually turn up before inflation turns up. Don't know whether that because earnings go up, or prices go down. Inflation has been in a downtrend for the last 18 years. -thestockrider