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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (21472)	11/17/2001 9:18:47 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

I think any larger trend can have smaller trends within it, call them what you will; but is this the beginning of a new long term bull market for equities?...in my mind, unequivically NOT. "Stocks tend to fluctuate", so said J.P.Morgan in one of history's great understatements. One look at the History of the Stock Market in the 20th Century confirms this. The stock market goes up (a Bull Market) and down (a Bear Market), but beyond that, Wall Street, quite unbelievably, has no universally accepted definition of either, so here goes: Bull Market... When stock prices have risen steadily over several months, experts call it a ""bull"" market. When stocks trend downward for a long period, it's a ""bear"" market. These terms were selected based on the way the two animals attack. When a bull rushes forward, he holds his head low and then gores upward with his horns. A bear, on the other hand, strikes downward with his paws. Charles Dow (of Dow-Jones’ The Wall Street Journal and The Dow Theory fame) defined it as "a broad upward movement" - I’d say O.K. but a little vague. Ned Davis Research defines it as "a 30% gain after 50 days…or a 13% rise after 155 days" - now I’d say that’s not too vague, but is a little too much. My own studies of the stock market in the 20th century show many fluctuations of 10 or 15% that don’t develop into anything, but when markets bounce up 19% that is the threshold from which advances have then risen 95% of the time to over +29%. One-half have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being 123%, and lasting nearly 3 years (based on the record with the aberrations of the 1930’s removed). Therefore, I define a Bull market as one which advances 19% on both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 over any timeframe. Subscribers will find a full report plus graph in the archives section: Bull Markets of the 20th-21st Century. thedowtheory.com