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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21478)	11/18/2001 3:31:01 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Great one allan, thx. <if PEs don’t expand (Chart 2) and if earnings increase 4% or so in future years (Chart 1) and if you begin from a dividend yield of 1% (Chart 3) – then your return from stocks over the next decade is going to be 5% or so: 4% from earnings growth, 1% from dividends> <The return could be even less if financial accidents, global risk reassessments due to war, or deflationary economics a la Japan come into play> not only does PIMCO assess and manage risk, but those boys know how to trade. it's very interesting to me that gross mentions event risk, financial catastrophe and the deflationary spiral in his thesis. it seems reasonable to surmise that he feels at least one of those scenarios is likely to affect the capital markets. of course, any CFZ regular sees at least two of those events unfolding, if not all three -g- regards and thanks for the link