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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4153)	11/18/2001 4:28:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 36161

Thanks. I have never before even remotely considered gold as an investment, even as a hedge. Always been 100% stocks, or cash waiting for good prices on stocks. But my thinking now is: The "fix" that the Fed and government are doing, is based on cheap money, massive liquidity injections, and ever-greater debt (government debt at all levels, corporate debt, consumer debt, cash-out mortgage refis, debts to foreigners). So, if the "fix" works, we get inflation immediately afterward, as soon as the recession ends. And, if the "fix" doesn't work, we get a 1973/4-severity recession, which is not currently priced into stocks. What's priced into stocks now is a 1990-style recession (short and shallow, ending 2Q02), and no inflation to the horizon. And I don't see how we can avoid one or both those evil outcomes, either of which will pull PEs a lot lower than they are now. Which is why I'm considering NEM.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (4153)	11/18/2001 6:00:58 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 36161

<Russ comments on a watch/buy list ?> Of course I'm into all kinds of microcaps in the junior sector that even most gold bulls don't have a stomach for (yet). For those who are looking for more upside (and I suppose speculation) we discuss these regularly on "Precious and Base Metal Investing": Subject 51846 For a few solid names with somewhat bigger caps and higher profiles I'd offer up El Dorado (ELD), Francisco (FGX), Iamgold (IMG), Minefinders (MFL), TVX, and Geomaque. Some comments on producer POG leverage: Message 16664668 The new NEM is not as leveraged to POG as one would think, but I agree it will catch the fund flows in a rally before about any other major. The key for them IMO will be to go after some new development deposits. I have a few ideas I'd like to offer them <g>. In contrast, there is immense operating leverage in the advanced stage juniors.