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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (56309)	11/19/2001 6:23:19 PM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Yes GZ, Based on expected 2012 earnings, I calculate the market has a very low PE. And, since demographics should be favorable, and I see no discontinuous innovations, I can be confident of those earnings, and know I am holding safe stocks for the long-term. (Since inflation and interest rates are low, this market, as always, is severely undervaluing). Skeet (Thanks Jacob)

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (56309)	11/26/2001 7:11:42 PM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

GZ: I haven't looked things over since last week. However, I agree that the market could go higher before a correction starts. Investors and speculators tend to go overboard once the primary trend is set. My figures show the potential for a correction by the end of this week. The probability of it happening is higher if there is a decent run-up in the next couple of days. Depending on the market action, this run-up can be extended as you note. You seem as if you were around since the 1960s so you are probably aware of the following. Many people believe that a P/E of 70 or so for 10 percent growth is excessive. However, after the demise of the go-go years in the 1960s and the slaughter of the junk stocks from that era, the next phase of the market was the "nifty-fifty," "one-decision" stocks of the early 1970s. Anyone with an extensive library or access to microfiche can review the 1972 issues of Forbes Magazine for information on this phenomenon. In that year of the magazine, they will find that many of the "one-decision" stocks acquired incredible P/Es for mundane growth. Of course, the one-decision stock era came to an unkind end with the devastating bear market of 1973 and 1974 which flushed out most of the surviving speculators and investors from the go-go years.