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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (21519)	11/19/2001 9:38:09 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 209892

We reached the same level as the 1998 bottom and haven't gone down that much since then; how much more do we need to work off before we turn down again? I'm of mixed opinion on this; the big bears, like '73-74, have tended to have bearish sentiment remain high for a long time, and hit greater extremes than this one has seen. Investors Intelligence, for example, had 70% bears at the '74 bottom; we hit 43% in September, and now have more bulls than bears again. Options trading was in its infancy back then, so no one knows what the PC ratio would have looked like in '73-'74. So the question is, do we need to show high levels of complacency again, like smoothed measures coming down, before we hit the sentiment that has usually accompanied major bear market bottoms? Don't know the answer, just throwing it out.