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Pastimes : Ask da_cheif -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (7215)	11/19/2001 5:05:59 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 8150

JRI, Didn't mean to imply your rooting for a bin bin event. Please Excuse...! Don't believe most bears are either, but mean that these nervous markets are edgy and the long holders may exit quickly on any glitch in the optimism. The WSJ carries an interesting article today page C1: "Bull Market Nears, but Many Won't Believe It" Bull Basis: when an index rises 20% it's in a bull market. Today we've seen a 19.8% rise off 21st and now 20% likely on today's close. It studies every DJIA Bull move --(10) since WW2, then looks at the next 20%.... What was the after return...? 1990 to 2000....just +3% largest ever...1974 to 1976 producing....+16.9% most others are below....+6%. What's important about this is that most investors miss out on the first 5-10%....! Why.., Fear followed by poor advice from the street analysts. [paraphrase] "Hedge funds reaped large gains off the 2000 peak and have been protecting those gains and covering shorts. Intuitional managers are fearful of being left on the side lines in case the rally turns into a long-running bull market." Second most important after 20% gains the markets have to be watched carefully. Another article expresses my disdain for analysts and their nonsense, Henry Blodget is a good example. One of the cardinal rules of investing.., don't trust the "talking heads and don't trust your broker." Sure it's a fragile market, but few see the buying opportunities, and even fewer talk about it...! "Blodget's just one of many culprits lurking beneath a paper-thin veneer of professional respectability built up by a farcical ratings system that props up storytellers and salesmen, not analysts. Institutional Investor's annual rankings get the top-rated Wall Street darlings coveted airtime on CNBC and translate into fatter salaries and bonus packages." turtletrader.com