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To: Les H who wrote (1012)	11/19/2001 6:25:30 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 29596

What to expect now. November 19, 2001 Ord Oracle. The "Percent Volume" indicator closed today at .6r and in bearish territory. The "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE closed today at 3.86 and in bearish territory. The S&P appears to be finishing an Elliott wave ABC rally off the September 21 low (we are in the last rally phase now). Since the "Percent Volume" and the "5 day ARMS" are both in bearish territory, the Elliott Wave pattern will not turn into a bullish "Five Wave" pattern. "Three Wave" patterns are corrective and bearish. The most bearish thing the S&P could do this week is to rally and have the volume decrease. When a market rallies and hits new short-term highs and volume decreases, the outcome is always the same-a decline. Volume should decrease as Thursday (Thanksgiving) approaches. The daily moving average of the tick index readings have already peaked on November 7 and since has turned down. This condition is a bearish sign. The S&P may hold up this week and extend to near the 1160 on Wednesday or Friday, but the outcome will be a decline into mid December. The minimum decline expected on the S&P is to 1040, which a 50% retracement. The "10 day ARMS" on the Nasdaq came in on Friday at 6.26, that's the 10 day not the 5 day. Or putting it another way, the average daily closing ARMS index came in at .626 for the last 10 days on the Nasdaq. That's bearish. When the "10 day ARMS" closes below 7.0, an intermediate term top is approaching. It looks as though a bearish " Rising Wedge" pattern is forming on the NDX right now. The most bearish scenario for the short term would be for the NDX to hit minor new short-term highs and the volume decreases. This is what usually happens at the end of a bearish "Rising Wedge" pattern right before the fall. Once the "Rising Wedge" pattern is completed, a quick and fast decline is generated that retraces back down to a minimum of where the pattern began (it can go further). This pattern began near the 1310 level on the NDX. This "Rising Wedge" pattern can hold up tell Wednesday or Friday of this week before declining next week. There may be a couple of light volume rally attempts as the NDX rallies into an exhaustion move and completes the pattern. We are short the QQQ at 37.75 with a stop at 40.65. They could hit our stop intraday before the market reverses. Since the "10 day ARMS" is at 6.26, the upside is limited, and we will most likely re-short the QQQ if our stop is hit. Our downside target is near the 32 level minimum. The Nasdaq VIX closed today at 50.83. Readings between 45 to 52 appear at tops. The XAU is in the final sell off for a multi month rally to begin in the next week or two. The Weekly and Months charts on Gold remain bullish. The Gold stocks we like are Drooy, NEM, HL and HM. All have bullish charts on a weekly bases. A minor "Selling Climax" may occur near term to end the consolidation off the May 22 high. Our upside target on the XAU is still 95 minimum. marketweb.com