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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (93809)11/19/2001 8:15:06 PM
From: Night Writer  Respond to of 97611
 
El,
Amatuer TA observations.

On the DOW, draw a line from the 9/21 close though the 10/31 close. On the COMPX do the same with the 9/21 and 10/30 closes. That gives you decent uptrend lines. Those up trend lines should act as support on any pull back to remain valid. The 1800 area for the COMPX, and 9475 area for the DOW are up trend line support areas.

The DOW & COMPX are approaching the 200 DMA. Crossing the 200 DMA is considered a Long Term buy signal just as crossing the 20 DMA is considered a Short Term buy signal.

There is a different school of thought that says the 50 DMA crossing above the 200 DMA is a Long Term buy signal. The COMPX is closer to that event then the DOW on a point basis.

Bottom line the DOW is running ahead of its up trend line. The DOW could have a healthy correction and remain in an up trend. I like the COMPX trend line better because it is more gradual Vs the steeper DOW up trend line. (Steep trend lines greater then 45 degrees usually collapse. Both of the trend lines are less then 45 degrees.) We might see some rotation out of the DOW into the COMPX before long based on valuations. But I wouldn't bet on it.<G>

My guess is the combination of up trend lines and approaching the 200 DMA is causing the new bull market comments.
NW

PS This stuff usually bores the H@!! out of most people.<G>



To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (93809)11/19/2001 8:25:21 PM
From: Night Writer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
I should have added that 9/27, 9/28, or 10/10 were short term buy signals depending on your short term TA poison. This run is currently getting a little "long of tooth".
NW