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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6831)	11/19/2001 10:13:38 PM
From: Stockdoctor	Respond to of 99280

Zeev...good point......i am sure the shorts wants Binnie boy get cornered so they dont get their heads handed to them more.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6831)	11/19/2001 10:32:17 PM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Respond to of 99280

It appears they are taking liquidity away from the market by dumping 10 year bonds. publicdebt.treas.gov

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6831)	11/20/2001 4:18:55 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

On the subject on bin Laden's demise, I find it strange that Rumsfeld says he wants "a large number of people to begin crawling through those tunnels and caves looking for the bad folks." and "There is no question there are people out looking." But then he says the bombing is "targeting caves and closing them up" Might the latter statement be a bit of a disincentive, despite the reward? I can imagine an almighty fight for the credit and reward once he is caught. They can't even dress him in a burqua and smuggle him out anymore <g>.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6831)	11/20/2001 6:23:26 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Probabilities now favor a series of lower highs from our peak until we get a resolution of the bear market which will likely take more time than one month now IMO. We have the "new bull market" crowd appearing and a nice reaction high here or yet to come and this fat will take time to work off yet again, exogenous events notwithstanding. Your alternative model makes more sense in the current climate IMO. You may well get a low in December but I don't think it will be the final low. The market will have to get slaughtered from this day on to get a final low in December. And no cyclical bull market has started in the second year of a Presidency in December of the prior year. At least since 1962, the earliest such a rally has begun is February. I don't know if the Presidential cycle is in your model but it is in the back of my mind here. I think Afghanistan is now viewed by the market as closer to Kosovo. Market views Afghanistan as defanged. So surprises will be to the downside. Bin Laden's capture/death may well cause a spike but the issue is whether it will be from lower levels. I agree with you that the market has assumed the demise of Bin Laden and his network.