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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4253)	11/20/2001 11:49:23 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 36161

Yes, weather (and water) is going to always be a wild card for NG going forward. Any drop off in hydro generation will have an impact. Readers here may wish to understand NG's new role in electric generation. In 1995 industrial use of NG was 50% higher than electric generation. Now electric generation is 8% higher than industrial and climbing rapidly as a percentage. A closer look at Simmons NYMEX strip/production rate theory is here. To access, just provide your e mail. Well worth it to go over all this material. simmonsco-intl.com Page 11-13 shows the correlation in the US. Page 13 for GOM. The first year decline rates for the GOM shelf going back three decades of new fields is alarming. One reason for the slow response of uneconomical rig activity to current price may relate to a desire to artificially puff up (for Wall Street) company production rates that are under serious decline pressure.