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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (44336)	11/20/2001 12:37:03 PM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

Jim you might want to change your tune on consumer spending: Consumers Worry About Debt, Overspending November 20, 2001 12:13:00 PM ET By Andrea Shalal-Esa WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for the holiday shopping season with extended hours and other promotions, but a new poll shows 70 percent of Americans are concerned about spending too much or going into debt. The poll of 1,039 adults, conducted Nov. 9-12 and released this week by the Center for a New American Dream, said the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington spurred most Americans to focus on family and friends rather than shopping. Eighty-five percent of those polled said they believed the holiday season should be used to ``focus on friends, family and meaning.'' Just 8 percent said it should be seen as an opportunity to stimulate the sluggish U.S. economy. Seventy percent said they want to help the economy but are concerned about spending too much or going into the debt, the survey found. About one-half of Americans plan to spend more time with friends and family, and 21 percent plan to buy fewer or less expensive gifts. Nineteen percent told the pollsters they plan to reduce their use of credit cards. ``This poll reminds us what Americans really want for the holidays,'' said Betsy Taylor, executive director of the Takoma Park, Maryland-based Center for a New American Dream, a nonprofit group working to reduce commercial culture and protect the environment. Taylor warned against the ``incessant drumbeat from Madison Avenue'' urging consumers to shop, shop, shop. ``The really unfortunate thing is that if Americans follow their hearts this year and focus on family and meaning instead of work, stress and shopping, many people will call the holiday season a failure,'' she said. Stores are offering heavy discounts and other promotions to draw in consumers over the Thanksgiving weekend, normally one of the heaviest shopping periods of the year. Discount retailer Kmart Corp. (KM), for instance, announced on Tuesday that its 2,100 U.S. stores will be open on the Thanksgiving Day holiday Nov. 22, and will stay open for 66 straight hours beginning the following day. The poll's results appeared to agree with projections from the Conference Board, which reported on Tuesday that U.S. households were expected to spend about $50 billion over the holidays this year, about 4 percent less than last year. That amounts to an average of $462 per household, down from $490 last year. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said spending was expected to decline due to the sluggish economy, declining consumer confidence, widespread layoffs and the Sept. 11 attacks. Taylor's group has suggestions on its Web site, www.newdream.org, for environmentally friendly gift ideas, including tickets to sporting or cultural events, special photo albums of shared memories, and homemade calendars. Conducted by Opinion Research Corp. International, the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (44336)	11/20/2001 6:03:32 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Job Scene Continues to Look Bleak in 2002 By Catherine Valenti ABCNEWS.com Tuesday November 20 03:26 PM EST On the employment front, 2002 might bring more bad news. For those people who remember the dismal job market of the early '90s, 2002 could be like déjà vu all over again. Job prospects for the coming year are not expected to pick up any time soon, and many industry experts say it could be well into the second half of next year until the tight job market starts seeing any relief. A survey of 16,000 firms from staffing provider Manpower shows that only 16 percent plan to increase employment in the first quarter of 2002, a dramatic drop from the 27 percent of employers who said they planned to hire during the same period last year. Another 16 percent of the firms said they anticipate staff decreases during the first quarter, while 61 percent will remain unchanged and seven percent are uncertain. At this time last year, 10 percent of firms foresaw cutbacks and 58 percent planned no change in their staffing plans. Especially hard hit by this trend will be those professional workers who have enjoyed a robust employment environment in the past few years and may now have to take lower-paying positions or jobs that aren't as fulfilling as ones that they've had in the past. And those who aren't old enough to have been in the workforce during the recession of 1990-91 will be in for an especially rude awakening. "It's a labor market that is going through dramatic changes, particularly for people who are 30 years old or less," says Jeff Joerres, Manpower president and chief executive officer. Unemployment Expected to Rise While some economists argue that the latest unemployment figures — October's unemployment rate stood at 5.4 percent — are historically not that high, that situation could be changing. Lehman Brothers senior economist Joseph Abate expects the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5 percent by summer, with the economy shedding some 1.9 million jobs by then. "We think the job losses are likely to persist and those losses are likely to shift into the service sector," says Abate. While he sees some parallels between the job situation now and in the early 1990s, when the number of unemployed workers surged by 26 percent between July 1990 and March 1991, he notes that there is a chance that the unemployment rate could climb higher than his expectations. That's because the service sector, which has held steady in previous economies, has been hard hit this time around, with firms cutting more service jobs at the start of this downturn than at the beginning of the 1990-91 recession. And whether or not the higher unemployment rate will last as long as it did in the early '90s remains to be seen. Unemployment continued to tick higher for almost a year after the 1990-91 recession, hitting a peak of 7.8 percent in June of 1992. Though the unemployment rate typically lags the general economy and often remains elevated even after a recession has passed, Abate says the situation in the early 1990s was somewhat unique. Abate attributes that rise in unemployment to the growing shift from manufacturing to service jobs taking place at the time. Spots of Optimism Despite the dismal outlook, some bright spots do exist. Employment experts see opportunities in the healthcare, biotechnology and technology sectors for certain positions. Specialized technology workers like software application engineers or systems analysts are likely to see demand, while nurses and pharmacists are also in demand, says Ray Baumruk, senior consultant at Hewitt Associates. "We have several clients who literally just can't find enough pharmacists to fill the type of growth these organizations are trying to achieve," says Baumruk. Of course, not everybody can just pick up their lives and just become a pharmacist or a nurse — these positions can require years of education and training. But those who are in industries that are slumping can look to move within areas that are doing well, says Chris Ryan, director of people's strategy practice within Andersen's Human Capital Practice in Chicago. Though retail and banking sectors are in a slowdown, for example, there are segments of those industries, such as discounters and mortgage brokers, that are doing well. "The real theme is not so much am I in the right industry but am I in the right location or the right part of the business," says Ryan.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (44336)	11/20/2001 10:36:18 PM
From: SOROS	Respond to of 65232

Unfortunately, I was born sarcastic. Works well sometimes -- sometimes gets me in the, how did you put it, the shitto? I agree about the coordinated, "pull out the stops", save the markets at any costs effort of the Fed, all the government, the brokers, the media, etc. Trouble is, the entire thing is based on more debt getting everyone out of trouble. In a perfect world of low debt to begin with, usually works. In the extreme debt-laden world of today, might just not work THIS time. And if it fails -- which is highly probable if the terrorist thing is not as sewn-up as everyone thinks -- or business and manufacturing, as you point out, continue to drop off more jobs and have enough bankruptcies that it puts a burden on 1/3 of the economy and slowly kills confidence and drags down a portion of the consumer 2/3 to the point of perceived death -- then we have a disaster scenario as in depression-like drop in equities. If we even have a test of the September lows, which some TA guys who are NOT bearish long-term even call for, you will see individual equities set new lows as everyone bails fast to hold on to the unreasonable gains of the past 2 months -- especially in the internet-type stocks and others with nothing but debt and empty promising press releases. When people figure out that equities may not return more than 4-5% for the next SEVERAL years, the resulting outflows could be momentous. I remain, SOROS