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To: Jordan Levitt who wrote (108911)	11/20/2001 2:55:12 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

So, there are only "bubbleonians" and bears, and only the bears are rational and able to calculate the value of a company. no, there were only bubbleonians and bears mentioned in my post. there is a spectrum of opinion of course. First of all, in terms of rationality, the market goes up approximately about twice as much as it goes down, so is it really irrational to be a Bull ? do you mean there are twice as many up days as down days? i don't know about this--you will need to clarify your statement and back it up with references, as i think the day-to-day distribution is considerably closer to 50:50. if you simply mean the market goes up over a long period of time due to inflation and GDP growth, i would agree. that is fundamental growth at work. but such fundamental factors are slow and hard to perceive, whereas speculative factors are mercurial and have tremendous impacts over periods of time, which periods, while perhaps not lasting a lifetime, can perhaps last longer than the time horizon of your average investor (25-30 years). that is to say, skewing of quotational value w/r/t fundamental value can be larger, and last longer, than one's position to the contrary. this is why shorting stocks can be dangerous, even if one is right in a run that is longer than one's watch or pocketbook.