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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (56041)	11/20/2001 6:16:37 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

It appears that the Grace order saved the October book-to-bill. It may be, but I don't think the smart money will be swayed. The writing is on the wall. Analysts are starting to comment about the recovery, and that when it happens it will be shallow. An the "when" is a ways off. Have you noticed how well KLAC held up versus AMAT and NVLS over the last few months? Until today, KLAC had been above its 200 dma. There have been comments about how they've been suggesting weaker bookings. This one is going to fall hard. ork

To: advocatedevil who wrote (56041)	11/21/2001 8:59:02 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

You might recall that during October, AMAT booked a significant $200 million order from Grace Semi for a foundry in China. If I recall correctly from the recent Applied CC, management commented that the order is not scheduled to begin shipping until next August, but was included in their current backlog numbers. It appears that the Grace order saved the October book-to-bill. When orders are way down, the granularity of the orders becomes evident where a big order can make one month and break another... This is probably why they use a moving average. Intel also leaked last month that they would spend 10 to 20% less on Capital equipment. If we take the 20% number, then I calculate $6B. Divide that into 12 months and you get an order rate just for Intel of $500M which is 77% of the October bookings. IF you add in the China order, it says Intel is behind schedule on ordering... Do you think ANY of the other semi companies will order new equipment in the next year? According to Morgan, they are going to be in real trouble when they have to deliver parts customers want and they only have pilot 300mm lines running.