Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ratan lal who wrote (56046)	11/20/2001 11:14:56 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "Do you think the report is good enuf to move the chip sector up?" Ratan, Here's my thoughts: With the new accounting rules in play, the BTB ratio and associated shipments number are both interesting at best. They have little value as forward looking sector indicators. The bookings number is more meaningful. While bookings did increase in percentage terms by about 5%, the actual change in dollars is insignificant and well within the range of noise. For example: If you look back at the more recent BTB bookings numbers, you can see that we had a 5% move up in July after two small increases in May and June. It would have been a mistake to believe we had turned the corner based on those results. Here's another way to look at it: If AMAT had booked that $200 million Grace/China order this month instead of last month, I estimate the bookings number would have come in at around $585 million (which would have been the lowest level this year). The point is that even a single order can significantly impact the 3-month average when bookings are at such low levels. As a result, we continue to have no real indication of direction at this point. About all we can safely say from the numbers are that bookings are bouncing along the bottom while shipments continue to move towards parity. There's no sign of recovery. So, is this report good enough to move the chip sector up? My answer is no. I believe the report will be viewed as a non-event, and that if the sector does move up tomorrow, it will have nothing to do with the book-to-bill number. All IMO of course, and all FWIW. AdvocateDevil