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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (939)	11/21/2001 11:12:52 AM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

Let me try and answer 'the bottom' question. Money has not been going into exploration for metals. The world is consuming vast amounts of metals, Russia and China are building their infra structures, consumer inventories are very lean. It won't take much to get the prices moving up. The producers are getting really disciplined, copper and zinc have announced big shutdowns.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (939)	11/21/2001 12:14:03 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1643

Joel i can't speak for someone else but technology has lowered the cost of commodities. Combined with that the wage scale tied to the commodity market is low. From there i think of steel and the fact that in China due to the low cost of labor steel can be fabricated at fractional cost to what it is here. Then i extrapolate that to the present market and i feel that until the labor rate increases the price of commodities will remain low. This also can be applied to Ag as subsidies are part of most developed nations plans and underdeveloped do have financial aid from elsewhere coming in. In my opinion this could keep some commodities in the lower range for quite a few years.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (939)	11/25/2001 7:52:17 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1643

>> why do you think lead has performed in the way it has? << beats me. like was said before, there hasn't been much exploration for lead recently, just like with it's underground neighbor silver. the difference with silver is there are still above ground stocks that can find it's way to market. i don't think there is much lead hiding out there. it's hated. it's been removed from practically everything. no more lead in gasoline, no more lead pipes, no more lead for ammo, no more lead candles, soon no more lead solder, etc. about all it's used for is car batteries these days. perhaps the market is finally saying that lead can't be removed from much anymore so demand will stabilize with the demand for batteries. perhaps the market is saying with all this 0% financing for cars going on auto sales are going to stimulate demand. i'm no expert on this stuff but i do know that coal was in the dumps for years and was pretty despised right before it took off. most people had written it off. now people talk about zinc demand not coming back for years (pretty bearish talk) and you have even more hatred of lead than zinc. (see comment below) no one seems interested in lead while it sits at prices nearly half the depression lows. the lowest prices on record. i like the fact that lead is holding it's own while no one likes it. well it's up ytd so i guess the market likes it (if only a little). i'm sure there are other commodities that are even more bullish looking than lead, but lead is something a simple guy like me can understand. Asked if WMC may also be interested in BHP Billiton's Cannington silver, lead and zinc mine in Queensland, Mr Morgan said WMC was "less interested in lead than we are in zinc". Message 16241907