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Technology Stocks : ADI: The SHARCs are circling! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (2783)11/21/2001 10:10:07 AM
From: Bob Trocchi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2882
 
Another somewhat positive analysis.

bob T.

>>Analog Devices (ADI) 42.00 -1.80: This maker of semiconductors used in analog and digital signal processing (DSP) applications is holding up pretty after the bell despite warning for the current qtr. OctQ EPS came in at $0.14, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus although revenue was a bit shy.

JanQ revenue forecast was reduced to $400 mln vs consensus of $447 mln while EPS was reduced to $0.11 vs $0.14 consensus. You never like to hear a warning, but there were some good nuggets in the report and the conference call.

Most importantly, ADI is continuing to see signs that it's approaching this cycle's trough. In OctQ, total orders increased 16% sequentially and orders for shipment within the quarter increased 16% sequentially which led to its turns business, which is sales from orders booked and shipped within the same quarter, increasing to $156 mln, or 37% of sales.

Also, cancellations continued to abate in OctQ. Book-to-bill improved, but orders were below current shipment levels and its backlog declined.....Balance sheet remains rock solid as cash increased sequentially by $120 mln, bringing total cash to $2.8 bln. Inventories and acct receivables declined, despite the tough industry conditions.

So when does ADI turn it around? The company expects revenue growth to resume in fiscal Q2 (AprQ). Gross margin should remain stable while operating margin should come in around 13% as capital spending will remain low for the coming quarters. A quick look at the chart demonstrates investors' belief in the long term trends for ADI. It has been able to avoid the sell-off plaguing so many chip stocks in its sector, but with its 60% run since Sep, you should be able to buy it on weakness over the coming months as it should do well in a recovery.

ADI is pretty good at predicting troughs. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com<<