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Strategies & Market Trends : gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert duke who wrote (1347)	11/21/2001 3:34:51 PM
From: MKTBUZZ	Respond to of 2290

This might help, which I'll reprint here from my notes. Someone on SI wrote this: Demographic Analysis: I don't have access to those prior posts, although I remember making a number of them. Perhaps there's a misunderstanding based on Dent's own prognistications vs my own vis a vis the stock market. My own analysis remains essentially the same: A weakening demographic background into 2002-2003 after what I thought would be a mildly favorable backdrop before that. The system isn't that precise, so the earlier than expected Market weakness may or may not mean that modification of the analysis is required. Some moderate positive influence in 2004 and part of 2005, with the final high likely in 2005, then the long negative cycle takes firm hold. Keep in mind that, even if everything follows that general scenario, economic cycles still have important influence over intermediate term trends. Right now, the economic cycle is very favorable, even though the demographic backrop is weakening. It's inconceivable that I would have seen a major long-term high in the late years of this decade. I have a data sheet in front of me that I prepared in Sept '99. It shows huge negative numbers from demographic influences for the years 2006 and 2007, with no really strong demographic influences through 2016.

To: robert duke who wrote (1347)	11/21/2001 5:07:38 PM
From: gem-x	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2290

Looks like Wave 2 of Wave 3's Wave 1 is completed.. Tested and held .500/.618 retrace (1867/1849) on low volume and volatility, and the candlesticks look bullish... If the Thanksgiving Friday rally holds true, than a strong rally would create a morning star reversal on the COMP, to possibly 2172-2180. QLGC has a bullish piercing line reversal formation, went long at 43 today. It's also completed an A-B-C zigzag (if the rally to 49.15 was wave 5) or a double sideways zigzag.

To: robert duke who wrote (1347)	11/21/2001 6:38:51 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2290

I believe (with many others) that the big NASDAQ crash from March 2000 to 21 Sep is an A wave of an ABC correction. We are now in the B wave which is retracing a substantial part of the crash. This B wave that could last several months to a year could take us up as far as 3000+ on the NAS. The B wave is composed itself of 3 waves, A, B, and C. The first of these A has 5 waves. We are in wave 3 of that A wave. Wave 3 itself has 5 waves. We may just Wednesday completed wave 2. When this huge B wave correction is over, there will then be another huge crash to new lows on all indices. That may be the end of the bear market if we are lucky.... That's the E-Wave prognosis anyway.