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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Scoobah who wrote (504)11/21/2001 3:39:36 PM
From: Scoobah  Respond to of 32591
 
Saudi Royal Family Closing Ranks
November 21, 2001

Summary

Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah warned senior Islamic leaders Nov. 14 to be cautious and avoid inflammatory remarks in their religious speeches. Facing trouble on various fronts, the royal family is closing ranks. However, the move may alienate the country's religious elite and increase opposition to Abdullah, the country's de facto leader.

Analysis

Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah warned senior Muslim leaders Nov. 14 to be cautious in their religious rhetoric and called on them to "not be emotional or provoked by others," the official Saudi daily Arab News reported Nov. 15. Abdullah exhorted the religious elite to avoid inflammatory remarks and to "weigh each word before saying it." Abdullah's comments mirror a similar warning issued by his traditional rival, Defense Minister Prince Sultan, two months ago to the country's security forces.

With Islamic radicalism growing and Saudi-U.S. relations strained, the royal family is coalescing against trouble on various fronts. This suggests they have at least momentarily put aside internal rivalries for the sake of political survival. But Abdullah's warning may also alienate one of his key bases of support and undercut his political clout in the long run.

The warning does not represent an irreparable breach with Saudi Arabia's religious leadership. But it is the first time Abdullah publicly has tried to rein in the mainstream religious elite. It also demonstrates the royal family's growing fear of political dissent and serves notice that fueling opposition to the regime, even indirectly, will not be tolerated.

stratfor.com