DisplaySearch Quantifies Latest Surge in TFT LCD, LCD Monitor and Controller IC Shipments, Upgrades Forecasts
AUSTIN, TEXAS, November 20th, 2001 - DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in FPD market research and consulting, indicated in its latest biweekly newsletter, The DisplaySearch Monitor, that the LCD monitor and downstream TFT LCD and controller IC markets are experiencing significantly faster than anticipated growth due to the realization of new price points caused by dramatic reductions in panel pricing from April 2000 to September 2001. As a result, DisplaySearch has upgraded its forecasts described below. In addition, the company indicates that the dramatic increase in demand has caused TFT LCD fab utilization to rise significantly resulting in panel price increases throughout the 4th quarter and further price increases are expected through most of 2002. With LCD monitor street prices on the way up, consumers and corporate buyers should consider making their purchases now.
TFT LCD Monitor Modules
We previously expected Q3’01 shipments to rise 30% Q/Q in Q3’01 to 4.76 million units followed by 12% growth in Q4’01 to 5.34 million units resulting in total 2001 LCD monitor/LCD PC module shipments of 16.3 million panels. However, our Q3’01 panel shipment survey indicates Q3’01 shipments actually rose 43% to 5.21 million units, 450,000 units higher than projected. In addition, based on suppliers’ estimates, we now expect Q4’01 LCD monitor/LCD PC module shipments to rise 27% Q/Q to 6.62 million panels, 1.275 million panels higher than projected. In fact, Q4’01 LCD monitor/LCD PC module shipments were nearly as high as Q4’01 notebook module shipments, just 0.2% below the notebook module figures, and we project monitor module shipments will exceed notebook module shipments in Q1’02 if LCD monitor channel inventories remain at reasonable levels. For all of 2001, we now believe LCD monitor/LCD PC module shipments will reach 18.0 million units. If we were to annualize Q4’01 shipments and apply it to 2002, the market would reach over 26 million panels. It is likely that Q3’02 and Q4’02 shipments will be larger than Q4’01 figures, resulting in a market size of 27 - 30 million units. However, price increases and supply constraints could dampen the growth. We are in the process of modeling supply allocated to large-area markets vs. demand as well as determining the impact of higher prices on demand to pinpoint our 2002 LCD monitor forecasts, the results of which will be available in our upcoming Quarterly TFT LCD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report and Quarterly Desktop Monitor Shipment and Forecast Report.
LCD Monitors
Most of the growth in TFT LCD monitor/LCD PC module shipments is being absorbed by the LCD monitor market as opposed to the LCD PC market. While demand would have responded adequately at $499, the response at $299 - $399 has been overwhelming. In terms of Q3’01 LCD monitor shipments, we previously projected 39% growth to 3.97 million units. However, based on the panel shipment results, it is likely that the market will exceed 4.2 million units. In Q4’01, we had been projecting 23% Q/Q growth to 4.9 million units. With panel shipments exceeding our forecast, we will likely see Q4’01 LCD monitor shipments reaching 6 million units. Based on these assumptions, 2001 LCD monitor shipments should reach at least 15.5 million units, up from our prior forecast of 14.0 million units. If we annualized Q4’01 shipments in 2002, the LCD monitor market would reach 24 million units. However, it is likely that shipments in Q3’02 and Q4’02 will exceed Q4’01 shipments as long as prices remain at reasonable levels. Depending on pricing and a-Si supply, the LCD monitor market will likely reach between 25 - 28 million units with our exact forecast quantified in our upcoming Quarterly Desktop Monitor Shipment and Forecast Report.
Controller IC Shipments
Starting with the last issue of the Quarterly Desktop Monitor Shipment and Forecast Report, we began forecasting controller IC shipments to the LCD monitor and LCD PC markets. We projected that shipments would rise 47% in Q3’01 to 5.255 million units. Although we have not finalized our Q3’01 results yet, preliminary data based on survey results from most of the suppliers indicates that Q3’01 controller IC shipments rose 59% to 5.725 million units. In Q4’01, shipments are expected to rise an additional 30% to 7.42 million units.
It is important to note that LCD monitor, TFT LCD monitor module and controller IC shipment results all differ because they are on different timelines: controller ICs ship ahead of TFT LCDs which ship prior to LCD monitors. In addition, controller ICs and TFT LCDs are also used in the LCD PC market.
The DisplaySearch Monitor
The latest biweekly issue of The DisplaySearch Monitor not only covers our forecasts and expectations for the LCD monitor market but also identifies the top LCD monitor brands worldwide and in North America in Q3’01. This issue also includes articles on:
LCD Monitor Pricing
TFT LCD Supply/Demand
An Inside Look at LG.Philips' New 5th Gen Fab
Status of Hydis and Its SmartPanel Strategy
Trip Reports from LCD /PDP International, FPD Expo Korea and Comdex
Technology Innovations from Clairvoyante and Hitachi
FPD Fab Activity and Producer News
Guest Column on the Palm OS and Display Resolution
New LCD Monitor and LCD TV Introductions
Controller IC News
New Notebook PC Product Introductions, News, OEM News and Financial Analysis
Tablet PC and WebPad News
High Resolution Product News
FPD Equipment and Materials News
While The DisplaySearch Monitor has focused primarily on 10” - 30” display markets including notebook PCs, LCD monitors, LCD TVs, web pads, tablet PCs, controller ICs, fab activity as well as FPD equipment and materials markets, through its 5+-year history, starting in January of 2002, it will also cover <10” and >30” markets that were previously covered in DisplaySearch’s Flat Panel Video Analysts. In addition to merging the contents of these two newsletters, DisplaySearch has introduced a new newsletter dedicated to OLEDs called the OLED Emitter. This monthly newsletter is dedicated to all aspects of the OLED market including small molecule and polymer passive matrix and active matrix development and commercialization efforts, fab activity, panel specifications, technical papers and market news.
An annual subscription to the biweekly The DisplaySearch Monitor is priced from $1995 - $2995 depending on company size. The monthly OLED Emitter is priced from $995 - $1995 depending on company size. DisplaySearch authors more than 20 biweekly, monthly, quarterly and annual FPD-related publications in addition to offering consulting services and hosting display conferences worldwide. For more information on any DisplaySearch product or service, please contact DisplaySearch at TEL: 512-459-3126, FAX: 512-459-3127, email: info@displaysearch.com or Web: www.displaysearch.com. |
