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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (7496)	11/22/2001 8:02:57 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Who'd have thought it? Weird weak economy indicator (from U.S. Mint). November 21, 2001 U.S. Mint Lays Off Hundreds By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 6:40 p.m. ET PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- A surplus of coins attributed to the softening economy has prompted the U.S. Mint to begin layoffs. Instead of 23 billion new pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters next year, mint officials now believe they'll need only 15 billion. The mint had already made too many coins during the past year. The mint has begun laying off 357 workers nationwide, including major coin-production plants in Philadelphia and Denver, U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said Wednesday. ``When people are spending less money, there's less transactions out there,'' White said. The drop in demand for new coins is staggering, said James Benfield, executive director of the Coin Coalition, a Washington lobbying group that supports the dollar coin. Benfield and others speculate the coin glut is being compounded by many coins coming back into circulation after months or years on dresser tops and in shoe boxes. But a spokeswoman for Coinstar, a company that operates 9,300 coin-changing machines in supermarkets, said the company is not seeing an increase in usage of its machines. The machines count a shopper's coins and exchange them -- minus a service charge -- for cash or groceries. Coinstar estimated that Americans have $7.7 billion in spare change at their homes. For the mint, lower production means lower profits because it charges the Federal Reserve for the full face value of a coin, though it costs less to manufacture. For example, it costs 4 1/2 cents to make a quarter, but the mint charges 25 cents. The mint sends the balance to the U.S. Treasury to pay for other government operations. But when demand drops, the mint has to cut costs just like a private company, leading to layoffs. The agency -- which also has operations in San Francisco, West Point, N.Y., and Washington, D.C. -- plans to get rid of about 12 percent of its 2,861 employees. Coins for Eastern states are made in Philadelphia; coins for the West are made in Denver. ------ On the Net: U.S. Mint: usmint.gov Copyright 2001 The Associated Press

To: LTK007 who wrote (7496)	11/22/2001 9:11:22 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Trader Sentiment: I subscribe to a similar service (Jake Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Indices) that is a daily barometer of the sentiment of futures traders. I use the S&P and Nasdaq Daily Sentiment Indices of bullishness on a contrarian basis. While I concur that there's been extreme bullishness on the part of traders since the beginning of November, surpassing that of late April thru early June, the indicator does not reliably differentiate between short-term and intermediate term overbought conditions. It only tells us that both the Nasdaq and the S&P have been extremely overbought, not how far down they'll correct. The only way to get an idea re that, is to watch how quickly the sentiment #s come down as the Market declines. So far they've only dropped from the upper 80's to the lower 60's (3 & 5 dy mov aves). Other indicators, such as weekly mutual fund cash flows and the average of 3 sentiment indicators found in Barron's (Consenus Inc, AAII, and Market Vane) do a much better job of identifying major trend change points. 1yr Nasdaq Business Sentiment 2.5 to 5wk lead) remains mildly below its highs of a couple of weeks ago, so the decline so far looks to be modest. I agree that a short term decline has started, but think that it could be mild or moderate in its pace.