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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Walliker who wrote (49077)	11/22/2001 11:04:12 AM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Respond to of 54805

JW, ""Whenever I see a claim that a medical diagnostic test is 100% accurate I become VERY suspicious about the accuracy of the rest of the article."" I agree, here is a more detailed report that I wrote for clients about how it works. Affymetrix (AFFX) has been a leader in the development of Gene Chip based diagnosis. The problem is many of their results are no better than 50% accurate and their tests take hours and sometimes days to complete. Their process is so expensive that it will probably never make it out of research labs. To make money you need a patient based high volume device. "XXXXXX" is a small company developing Gene Chip diagnosis using Bioelectricity rather than Passive Hybridization that AFFX uses. The "XXXXX" Gene Chip changes the natural negative charge of DNA to positive and moves it to a test site probe. The negative charge of the patient's DNA samples leap to the positively charged probe sites. The process is entirely automated and takes a matter of minutes to complete. The "XXXXX" Chip is programmed with the DNA of diseases or infections and the match leads to the diagnosis. The market for this is about ten billion and with "XXXXX" one of the leading companies it is reasonable to assume they will capture a 10% market share. As an exercise in " What If", if you use the market value placed by wall street on the stock at their current income level and then use the one billion number you get a future stock price of about $270. Of course this isn't always accurate but it gives me a sort of target and a possible scenario. The stock is trading at less than "XXXX" today. Motorola has invested about 500 million in similar technology however MOT is so big the investment opportunity is lost in their huge operation. cdaisey@house-on-the-bay.com