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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4317)	11/22/2001 10:37:20 AM
From: ldo79	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

For those following the Argentina debacle, it's getting close to "Taps, taps, lights out - the smoking lamp is out in all berthing areas": "Argentina denies bonus delay, but may have no choice" biz.yahoo.com Regards, ldo79

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4317)	11/22/2001 11:06:04 AM
From: majaman1978	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Frank, I have a question. I know you have mentioned in the past a unit trust COS.UN. Is this trust solid? Would like to possibly add to a 401k and just started looking at it. Thanks. Mark

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4317)	11/22/2001 12:07:44 PM
From: ldo79	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Another "don't shoot the messenger" From today's Roger Bently Arnold's email: "The US markets are getting stranger by the day. The huge move up in US treasury yields has effectively ended the mortgage refinance boom as rates have skyrocketed in the past week; up almost a full percentage point at PAR; now at 7.125% 30 year fixed rate. This is the quickest increase in long term rates I have ever experienced and I can not explain it. This is the fastest move in rates in 14 years. The traditional explanations of profit taking, money migrating out of the US, inflation concerns, and short selling don't fit as logical explanations within this context. The only explanation that does fit logically is institutional selling for cash to meet other debt obligations. I can not verify that this is occurring but it is plausible and probable. If it is occurring it is a very ominous sign for the economy. In other words the US treasury market is reflecting reactive selling rather than proactive selling; selling to raise cash to pay another debt rather than selling to take a profit or take advantage of another opportunity. This may have been caused by margin calls on derivative trades or the need to extend further credit to Argentina, Enron or others. Whatever the rationale, I don't like it. The move in rates can not be explained logically and rationally; is indicative of a financial problem that as yet has not been identified and acknowledged and may be systemic. Let me put it this way. Imagine you were in New York city on the morning of September 11, sitting in a diner eating breakfast and, for whatever reason, did not know that 2 planes had just hit the WTC. As you look out of the window of the diner you see people running past the store front, not just one but many, all of the people on the street are running in one direction, reacting to an event that they are aware of that you are not. I feel like the guy in the restaurant; I can see the flight out of US treasuries, understand it is abnormal, but don't know why it is happening because I'm not close enough to the cause. We will know soon enough." And a Happy Thanksgiving to all! Regards, ldo79