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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gem-x who wrote (11217)	11/22/2001 1:54:27 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I saw that post and many had that line in the sand as it was so obvious both trend line wise and time wise in a cyclical chart. I also recall you proclaiming the bottom around 4000 and proclaiming we would see 6000 on the NASDAQ and 14000 on the DOW before we would EVER see 3000. You were very arrogant and wouldn't shut up to the point where everyone on Stock Attack put you on ignore and we were about to ban you from the thread. I think CFZ E-wave did ban you if I recall correctly. E-wave is about favored scenarios, not getting married to one and only one. I am not trying to pick a fight and if you have been making good calls recently, then great. Still, perma bulls get some right and perma bears get some right. It is trading the waves in-between that matters. I have seen very few do well at it and I still think AllansAlias is one of the best on SI with Shack ranking up there also. I admit I haven't paid much attention to you since those days of old. However I did use "da Chief" as a contrary indicator and made HUGE amounts of money fading his moves throughout 2000. When he showed up proclaiming a bottom, I shorted and usually doubled my money within days via QQQ options. IMO, the best contrary posters on SI have consistently been American Spirit, Da Chief and a few others I won't mention. Other than shorting within 3 days of Abby Joseph Cohen showing her mug on CNBC, they have been remarkably accurate for calling tops. UNfortunately, I think American Spirit has been permantly banned from SI so I am now unsure of when to mortgage the house and buy puts on this move. -ggggggg- I don't believe we have started a new bull yet and feel we are in a wave 4 corrective right now with a final wave 5 down to come next spring at the latest. My reasons are numerous but for a few, how many bear markets have had "V" bottoms without a retest? There are three phases of a bear market, 1)denial; 2) recognition; 3) capitulation. We had denial in 2000, recognition in 2001 but I don't believe for a second that Sept 11 was the capitulation phase. I saw no one swearing off stocks forever, a sell at any price, no bid condition, or any signs like that. What I saw was buy stocks to support America, you aren't a patriot if you aren't buying stocks. I saw how short sellers were being bashed for supporting terrorism etc. We still have that final phase of the bear lying ahead of us somewhere but we have to sucker in all the last sheep before we perform the final slaughter. Last the COT report shows the commercial smart money still adding shorts on this bounce. Look at past bottoms and they are usually the first to shift long. We aren't there yet. This wave 4 could take us up much farther though there is doubt as to if it will turn in December as there is a cluster of cycles there or if it will wait until next spring. Regardless, we will at least retest the old lows and may even break them if FA and history should by some remote chance return to the martket that has evolved into a pokemon trading card auction the last few years. What is your read now as to where we are? Good Luck, Lee

To: gem-x who wrote (11217)	11/22/2001 4:13:35 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<Look at the date, and the accuracy of that. Not even Warren Buffet can touch that.> 1.) Warren Buffet doesn't call the market. 2.) All the shorts I know here and CFZ all covered in those few days after the market reopened... hardly a big deal calling a short term bottom after an event like 9/11. Read CFZ around that time. NOW, if it turns out to ultimately be THE bottom [which after all is your assertion anyway, with all that bear market bottom stuff] then YOU DA MAN!!!!! IMO, you're way early calling that post a big deal. DAK