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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (11226)	11/22/2001 11:59:05 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Allen, There's much wisdom to your words. I keep thinking that level-headed skeptics such as yourself and me will get a chance to re-enter the market, much as Buffett did in early 1975. However, there seems to be no end to the chicanery applied to keep the valuations of equities at a level that gives a sane investor (with a historical understanding) pause. I regularly hear of technical analysts who make some headway on watching the signals of the market, and couldn't care a whit about the underlying economic reality. They seem to be more in tune with the casino game strategy that came to the forefront of strategies in the 1990's and hasn't really left us. You describe all the classic symptoms of a bear market bottom, SI contributions plummet, Main Street losses complete interest in the game, etc. But the market doesn't seem to accept this as a reasonable course. Trade volumes remain ridiculously high, in view of the churning that is involved, and there isn't the sort of simple neglect of the markets that I'd expect, in view of the paltry prospects for returns. I'm stumped. My only conjecture is that this liquidity injection is bound to end badly, but that the meaning of "end" is somewhat obsucre. Sorry for the ramble. I'm just trying to think through the mindset of Mr. Market, without really having enough of an idea of what is keeping the game afloat. Though I'm enough of a conspiracy theorist to think that the Plunge Protection Team is running a bit scared... <g> -R.