To: Lola who wrote (10913 ) 11/23/2001 9:38:36 AM From: DeplorableIrredeemableRedneck Respond to of 27666 Not exactly the pushover he'd counted on By MARCUS GEE Globe and Mail Friday, November 23, 2001 – Page A4 Imagine you are Osama bin Laden, huddling in his cave. Your friends, the Taliban, are in retreat. Two-thirds of Afghanistan is in the hands of your enemies. Every city except Kandahar has fallen. News has just come in that Kunduz, the Taliban's last stronghold in the north, is crumbling too. Every warlord in the country is looking for you, hoping for that $25-million (U.S.) reward. The best and fiercest commandos in the world, equipped with the latest and deadliest equipment, are on your trail. Soon the AC-130 planes are coming too, flying fortresses that can blanket the ground with withering fire and cut down your men like wheat in the field. Your military chief is dead, killed by U.S. bombs. Many of your Taliban defenders have felt the change in the wind and gone over to the other side. Like Hitler in his underground bunker in Berlin in 1945, you pore over maps, bark at your generals and agonize over what might have been. A fantasy? Perhaps. No one can really say where Mr. bin Laden is now or what is going through his head. Maybe he is not in a cave at all. Maybe he is making his escape through the mountains. Maybe he is already hiding in another country. But wherever he is, he must be wondering how things went so wrong so fast. When suicide hijackers attacked New York and Washington on Sept. 11, it was not a random or pointless act. It was part of a strategy. Mr. bin Laden and his allies had struck U.S. targets four times in five years: in Saudi Arabia in 1995 and 1996, in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and in Yemen in 2000. Apart from a few cruise-missile attacks, there was no U.S. response. So he planned another attack, a stunning raid with a new weapon (suicide planes) that would set the Americans reeling, spreading terror throughout the land and sapping the morale of the infidel nation. If they dared to hit back, they would be drawn into a trap: a long, exhausting battle in Afghanistan that the Islamic world would see as a fight between Islam and the West. If all went well, Muslims all over would rise up against "Crusaders and Jews;" pro-Western regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other regional countries would topple. By lashing back, the Americans would do Mr. bin Laden's work for him. In fact, none of this has happened. Instead of reeling from the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States awakened from its sleep as it did after Pearl Harbor, filled with a terrible resolve. Its allies have rallied to its side, and its war in Afghanistan has gone much more quickly than even the sunniest optimist could have predicted. Instead of the Americans, it is the Taliban that have been sent reeling, their confidence shattered by the U.S. bombing. The rest of the Islamic world has remained remarkably calm. The mass demonstrations that were predicted have not happened. No government has been shaken by the aftermath of Sept. 11, much less overthrown. Mr. bin Laden's videotaped calls for a war of civilizations, although shown all over the region, have fallen on deaf ears. This cannot have been how Mr. bin Laden imagined the future when he heard that those planes had hit their targets. Like bin Laden the prophet, bin Laden the strategist has proven to be a crashing failure. His followers say that he yearns for martyrdom. That may be the only part of his plan that works. mgee@globeandmail.ca